Everyone involved in the current Israel-Palestine peace negotiations waited with bated breath for the 26th of September - the day the 10-month Israeli freeze on settlement building expired. Would Netanyahu extend the moratorium as a gesture of sincerity towards peace negotiations? Would Abbas be able to save face among the Palestinians if he didn�€™t?  Will Obama�€™s effort to attend to a two-state solution actually amount to something? Or is this the end? The answers to these questions will set the course of Israel-Palestine relations for the next 12 months. 

Future of Israeli Perspective:

In spite of talk of a 60 day extension and a promising alliance between Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the freeze was called off on the 26th morning of September, marked by a symbolic pouring of cement at a daycare center in Qiryat Netafim. However, Netanyahu did not announce the end of the moratorium in his speech on Sunday morning. This has led some analysts to speculate that there is a possibility the Israeli PM will impose some sort of restrictions in the coming days. Judging from past events, however, peace negotiations have never been promising inhibitors of Israeli settlement building in the occupied territories. In fact, Israel�€™s leadership has actually enhanced building in many cases in an effort to placate irate right wing parties vehemently opposed to negotiations. The Shas party dynamic with Netanyahu has formed a similar political structure and one can only hope that history does not repeat itself.

Future of a Two-state Solution:

An important point to note is that the moratorium does not even apply to the controversial territory of East Jerusalem; it concerns settlement building throughout the rest of the West Bank. While East Jerusalem is still a hotly contested issue between the two sides, most of the housing units under question here fall within the boundaries of a future Palestinian State. Building in settlements west of the �€˜Green Line�€™ and proclamations like the one made by Netanyahu�€™s Likud Party member Danny Danon, who stated, �€œToday we build in all the land of Israel�€ caste more than a shadow of doubt upon a future two-state solution.  

Source: Palestine Monitor

Future of Settlements:

The end of the moratorium means building will proceed on roughly 2,000 housing units that have already received approval from the government �€“ 600 have up-to-date paperwork and are expected to be completed in the coming months. According to Peace Now there are another 11,000 approved units that are in the works and 25,000 that are awaiting approval. More important than the number of housing units is the human angle to settlements. Excluding East Jerusalem, settlers in the West Bank already number over 100,000. For these settlers the building ban could not have been lifted at a more opportune time �€“ during the festival of Sukkot when Jews recreate the fragile dwellings or sukkah in which their ancestors dwelt, before they founded Israel.  The parallel between the sukkah and the settlements is one of great symbolism and should not be overlooked. For these settlers the occupied territories have become their homes and they look forward to accrediting them with a level of permanence. In the event of a two-state solution, the evacuation of and compensation for settlers will be the most challenging obstacles.  

Future of Palestinian Unity & Leadership:

Mahmoud Abbas is now taking a larger political opinion into counsel, saying he will make his decision based on talks with the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) and the Arab League �€“ but it will be a PLO lacking the opinion of the other 2 largest stake-holders in Palestinian polity �€“ the PFLP and Hamas. Fatah has already taken a blow at the political level and could receive strong disapproval at the public level as well. According to Munther Dajani, a political science professor at Al Quds University in Jerusalem, the decision to remain in the talks will look "very bad'' among the Palestinian public, only 15 percent of whom believe negotiations should continue after the settlement freeze was called off. Torn between the will of his international and domestic supporters, Abbas has found himself at a crossroads, where an attempted peace with Israelis could challenge Palestinian unity as a whole. 

Future of Negotiations:

On October 6th, the Arab League convenes to decide the next few steps for peace negotiations. Americans have tried over the past few days to reach a compromise on settlements. According to Ynet news the bi-monthly direct talks will impinge upon progress they make on this matter. Direct and regular talks between Israeli and Palestinian leadership are a step in the right direction but if there is no concrete measure from Netanhyahu on settlement building, Abbas might withdraw; he has already stated that he will be making an historic announcement on the 6th. The truth remains however, that for Palestinians, a decision to withdraw from dialogue completely may not be an option. Dialogue has become necessary �€“ it can result in economic development for Palestinians, a greater degree of control over areas in the West Bank and a slowing down of settlement construction. Yet, with a continuation of settlement construction, negotiations can only offer a means to peace with no end in sight. 

Whatever the outcome, settlements will stand at the center of any future Israel-Palestine peace process.