The first few weeks of September were host to a series of mudslinging events between Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi administration accused Syria of housing Ba’athists suspected of perpetrating the August truck-blasts in Baghdad; the Syrians challenged them for concrete evidence. Iraq then demanded that Syria hand over the suspects and Syria responded with a flat refusal. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki went so far as to request for an international tribunal to settle the dispute but the Syrians insisted that they would not betray those who took sanctuary within their territory, as Maliki himself had done during Saddam’s reign. 

The two countries butted heads, subjected each other to a slew of verbal assaults, and recalled their respective ambassadors. The altercation was reminiscent of an age-old rivalry shared between these two states since the origins of the Ba’ath movement. Perhaps this is why the media lost interest after the dust had settled. 

Yet, despite the decline of ‘Ba’athist’ talk in the media, the incident has certain interesting signposts that point toward strategic and political concerns for the new state of Iraq as well as the rest of the region. The altercation in the last few weeks between Iraq and Syria goes further than the bombings in Baghdad. Syrian support for former Ba’athist leaders can secure her a considerable position of influence in Iraq. 

Ba’athists placed in pivotal positions can gain access to intelligence and important Iraqi security information for Syria. They can infiltrate Iraq’s security apparatus and undermine the independent working of Iraq’s defense capabilities. Inadequate security measures during the August bombings have raised doubts about the allegiances of the Iraqi police and army and this isn’t the first time that the government has raised concerns about the penetration of militant groups within the security forces. 

Legitimate popular support for Ba’athists in the Iraqi administration can also translate into political sway for Damascus and help facilitate a Syrian connection in Iraqi politics. Considering the 40 years of history that Ba’athism has enjoyed in Iraq, it doesn’t seem unrealistic to predict a potential resurgence of the Ba’ath party. Their ideology of a ‘renaissance’ or a ‘resurrection’ can be re-structured and tailored to appeal to a new and politically ambitious Iraqi public. 

Over the last couple of years Syria has proved to be a formidable player in the Middle East. The Arab republic has managed to muster several new opportunities for gaining power in the region and still wields a substantial amount of control in Lebanon. The advancement of Ba’athists in Iraq will only help to fortify this position of power even further. After considering the following points, it seems that Syrian support for a potentially resurgent Baath party could spell trouble for Iraq in the future.

Yet Iran will pose a significant challenge to Syrian aspirations in Iraq. A recent coalition amongst Shiite parties in Iraq is gearing up for the national elections next year. The coalition includes the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and the Sadrist bloc. Both these parties are close to Tehran and their victory in elections next year could give Iran further access into Iraq. 

To put it bluntly, Iran’s firm support for Shiite parties and Syria’s supposed backing of former Ba’athists suggest a strategic play for power in the post-Saddamist, post-occupation state of Iraq. An optimistic scenario would project a new Iraq that will begin to enjoy the fruits of its sovereignty after the US pull out in 2011. But it is important to acknowledge that external actors will be interested in affecting the fledgling state.

The country’s vast supply of oil will bring a motley crew of suitors, vying for better economic, political and trade relations in the future. Before the 2003 war Iraq was producing up to 2.5 million barrels of oil a day and a majority of this was exported. In 2009, Iraq produces approximately 3.5 million barrels a day and analysts are speculating that oil production will surge to even greater heights in the future. Iraq’s geostrategic importance will also attract international interference. The country has become a breeding ground for aspiring militant pan-Arab organizations, after 2003 it is considered the center of the shiia-sunni divide in the Muslim world and its teeming population of approximately 65 million will possess a substantial role in future Middle East politics. 

In summation, the newly freed state will invite several strategic moves from regional players like Syria and Iran and this will have a substantial impact on the internal state of Iraq. It will also have an impact on the dynamic of Middle Eastern players. While American forces stood guard on Iraq’s territory, countries in the region formed alliances, either to support the US or to oppose them. Yet now that US forces are slowly vacating their space in the Middle East, players in the region will try to vie for a favorable position in the ‘new’ Iraq. This power-play might change the nature and status of Middle East politics as we know it. So before we discount the recent controversy between Iraq and Syria, let us remember not to throw the baby out with the ‘ba’ath’ water. 

Gitanjali Bakshi is a research analyst for Strategic Foresight Group, a political think tank based in Bombay, India. She specializes in strategic, political and security issues in the Middle East - with a focus in Conflict Prevention & Resolution.