The 2-month old Bangladesh government, under Prime Minster Sheikh Hasina, has just gone through its first acid-test – the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) mutiny in February 2009. Before it could be quelled, this mutiny by the country’s paramilitary force, known as the BDR, left over 74 dead. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s reputation has been enhanced greatly for suppressing the mutiny successfully through political means, instead of resorting to military force. This way, Hasina has also managed to send out a message to the international community that Bangladesh has a stable democratic government at its helm; this is sure to give a much-needed boost to the country’s economy in form of more foreign investment and aid. A case in point is the aid of USD 179 million that UN World Food Programme aims to give Bangladesh over the next 9 months. Such facts withstanding, the relatively peaceful containment of the mutiny by Hasina’s government is definitely not a happily-ever-after scenario; there is more to it than meets the eye. The truth is that while internationally, Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government have been much appreciated, internally, the political situation is quite shaky. The government’s fragile relationship with the nation’s army has received a huge blow due to the mutiny; the threat posed by Islamists to Hasina’s secular government has become graver; the paramilitary forces, the intelligence agencies and even the army need reform and the opposition, comprising of Khaleda Zia’s BNP and the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), are just waiting in the wings to topple the government with outside support.

Sheikh Hasina has reason to fear the army. Her government has come to power after 2 years of a military-backed caretaker government. Under the caretaker government, the army had tried its best to sideline Hasina and her archrival Khaleda Zia of the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) by arresting them on charges of corruption. Also, Bangladesh’s short political history is rife with numerous army coups.

Bangladesh’s army has gained a lot of credibility and acclaim for carrying out a fair election and for the smooth electoral transition in December 2008. Before the mutiny, it even seemed like the army was returning to the barracks. But now the army is clearly not happy with Hasina’s handling of the crisis, especially with the fact that Hasina had offered a general amnesty to the mutineers initially. Upon hearing of the massacre that the mutineers had carried out and due to the army’s angry reaction, Hasina quickly rescinded her offer of amnesty. But the Prime Minister did not allow the army to storm the compound where the mutineers were holed up; instead she chose to negotiate with them. This angered the army. In an interview post the mutiny, Hasina actually had to caution the army to refrain from taking revenge and power; so far, the army does not seem interested. But a lot would depend on whether the investigation is able to clear Hasina’s actions.

Initial investigations into the mutiny have revealed a terror link. This only proves how the threat posed by terrorist outfits operating in Bangladesh and that have connections to groups in Pakistan, to Hasina’s secular government is larger than what was originally thought of. The motive for such a conspiracy was clearly to topple her democratically elected government by instigating the army to take control. One of Hasina’s campaign promises, to root out terrorists, now becomes even more important as these terrorists groups can, in future, act again to create anarchy and chaos and plan to overthrow her government. The next few months might see Sheikh Hasina’s resolve to fight terrorism strengthening.

The motive behind the mutiny might also have been to distract the government’s attention from the 1971 war crimes trials that would have implicated mainly Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) members. The fundamentalist JI had opposed Bangladesh’s War of Independence in 1971 and had sided with Pakistan; many of its leaders were involved in committing war crimes at the time. Working on another one of her campaign promises, Hasina’s government was ready to start the 1971 war crimes trials as soon as it came to power early this year. It is interesting to note that in the middle of February, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, through one of his emissaries, had asked the Bangladesh government to refrain from carrying on with these trials. It is very likely that on account of the Bangladesh government refusing to adhere to this request, the plot for the mutiny may have been concocted in Pakistan with help from fundamentalist factions in Bangladesh. In a situation where the government is vulnerable, parties like the JI that lost very badly in the recent elections, are bound to take advantage. Post the mutiny when the tempers were high in the army barracks, one of JI’s prominent leaders made statements designed to inflame the army further. His statements regarding how the mutiny had been the army’s problem and hence, should have been handled by only the army were an attempt to widen the gap between the army and the Awami League-led government.

Along with the issue of terrorism, the mutiny has also brought to light other areas concerning the paramilitary forces, intelligence agencies and the army that need urgent attention. Intelligence agencies like the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) and National Security Intelligence need to be revamped, as the entire incident of the BDR mutiny is basically a huge intelligence failure. Reforms are needed within the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) focusing on ending grievances like salaries and promotions and on the recruitment process that allowed men with links to a banned outfit like Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) to be a part of the country’s paramilitary force. It would also have to be made sure that commanding officers in the BDR are drawn predominantly from within its own ranks, instead of being taken from the army as is done at present. Talks are also on regarding the formation of a National Security Council; this would ensure civilian control over the army. Reforms may also be needed within the army. With the army chief General Moeen U Ahmed soon set to retire, there are chances that the next chief of the army might be a political appointment.

Prime Minister Hasina’s challenge right now is a fine act of balancing between keeping the army happy and keeping the army in a position subordinate to the government. The army has suffered a blow, but it hasn’t been weakened. The mutiny has opened people’s eyes to the possibility of something similar happening within the army as well since there have been reports about the army ranks being infiltrated by fundamentalists too. Islamists have targeted the government as well as the army. The conspirators behind the mutiny were counting on the army intervening which would have led to a civil war-like situation and would have forced the army to take control of the country. Thus, the two pillars of Bangladesh face a threat from the same source - Islamic fundamentalists. In such a situation, the civilian government and the army need to work together in order to combat this common enemy facing them. This would give them an opportunity to cooperate rather than impede each other. It is also clear that unless reforms are carried out in the intelligence agencies and the paramilitary forces, there is a possibility of such incidents of mutiny being repeated and this time, it might lead to serious local and regional repercussions.