Bangladesh: A Fork in the Road

February, 2009
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The newly formed Bangladeshi government, under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is serious about tackling terrorism and placing Bangladesh at the helm of a regional initiative against terrorism. This attitude is best exemplified by the government’s recent proposal to establish a regional anti-terror task force (ATTF). US support for this proposal, a huge motivation for Bangladesh, is hardly surprising since the new US administration is assessing afresh the US-led ‘war on terror’. Sheikh Hasina and her government have, in front of them, the opportunity to push Bangladesh forward on the international map – by their efforts to battle regional terrorism, and by building significant bilateral and multilateral trade relations with their neighbors. Hence, at this moment in history, Bangladesh stands at crossroads - between pursuing economic development through regional cooperation or giving in to its rapid Islamization.

Since its formation in 1971, Bangladesh has had approximately 21 coups or attempted coups and just over 15 years of democracy. From 2006 to December 2008, Bangladesh was governed by an army-backed caretaker government; this interim government was involved in a major overhaul of the country. As a result, major institutions like the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), the Election Commission (EC), the judiciary as well as the public sector were reformed. This government even put the two major political heavy-weights, Khaleda Zia of the BNP (Bangladesh National Party) and Sheikh Hasina, under house-arrest in order to break their dominance in the country’s unofficial bi-party politics. But this effort of the army-backed government obviously failed, as is evident from the huge voter turnout in the 2008 elections, and the subsequent landslide victory for the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina.

The victory of the Awami League, a secular party in a country which is eighty-five percent Islamic, is not surprising as the country is known as a moderate Muslim nation. However, recently there have been an overwhelming number of reports talking about the growing Islamization of the country. Serial blasts of year 2005 and the bomb blast in 2004 during Sheikh Hasina’s political rally are not the only examples of Bangladesh’s vulnerability to the increasing Islamic fundamentalism. There have been numerous attacks on religious minorities, secular intellectuals and media by fundamentalist elements in recent years. Some regional experts have even compared Bangladesh to Afghanistan, in that its territory is being used by terrorists to plan and carry out attacks elsewhere.

This purported Islamization is a burgeoning process, with roots going as far back as the 1970s, right after the country’s independence. Recently, Khaleda Zia’s BNP government (2001-2006), comprising of fundamentalist parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Oikya Jote (IOJ), has been accused of protecting and supporting extremist outfits like HUJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami) and JMJB (Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh). Even the army-backed interim caretaker government (2006-2008) has not been able to keep itself isolated from allegations of allowing terrorist groups like the Hizb Ut Tahrir to strengthen under it.

At present, Bangladesh needs to choose its course of action - whether to bow down to the growing Islamic fundamentalism or to foster cooperative relations with its neighboring countries for economic development. The actions and declarations of the new Bangladeshi government indicate that it has chosen the latter path. Post the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist strike, its neighbor India is interested in regional initiatives for combating terrorism. The worsening relations between the two nuclear giants, India and Pakistan, have made such an initiative impossible between these two countries at the moment. So, Bangladesh is in a unique position to collaborate with India for a joint anti-terrorism initiative.

The government of Bangladesh has already shown signs of working in this direction - along with the proposed regional anti-terror task force (ATTF), it has also promised India that it will not allow Bangladeshi soil to be used for anti-India activities. Militant groups operating in India’s Northeast, have bases and training camps inside Bangladesh. According to some sources, these receive support from Pakistan’s ISI and even Bangladesh’s own intelligence agency, DGFI (Directorate General of Forces Intelligence). After the new government’s promise to India, there have been reports that due to increased cooperation between India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and Bangladesh Rifles (BDR), insurgents operating in India’s Northeast have been forced to look for shelter in Myanmar, Bhutan and China.

The SAARC summit, scheduled to take place in the later half of 2009 in Male, will give Bangladesh the opportunity to exhibit its efforts towards countering terrorism. If Bangladesh is able to satisfy the international community as well as India that it is sincere and effective in this, it would be able to obtain more than just goodwill. Its trade and foreign direct investment will get a boost; more investment would translate into more infrastructure development, more job and growth opportunities. The new government’s positive attitude has already started showing results.

During Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s recent Bangladesh trip in the first week of February, India signed two bilateral agreements with Bangladesh on trade and investment; which give Bangladesh a chance to correct its trade imbalances with India. These agreements make provisions for both countries to transport goods through each other’s road, rail and waterways. The talks held before the signing of these agreements revolved around duty-free access for and non-tariff barrier to Bangladeshi products as well as boosting Bangladesh’s trade relations with Bhutan and Nepal. These agreements pave the way for greater cooperation between the South Asian neighbors: Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan. Transit routes through Bangladesh, a part of one of the agreements signed, will facilitate greater trade relations. The contiguous regions of India’s northeast, Bangladesh and southwest China will benefit greatly, along with countries like Nepal and Bhutan.

At present, Bangladesh’s economy is in a dismal state. Its external debt has grown from USD 19.35 billion in 2006-07 to USD 20.1 billion in 2007-08. Its trade deficit has increased from USD 3.46 billion in 2006-07 to USD 5.54 billion in 2007-08. Food prices are the highest they have ever been with inflation being around 7% and the unemployment rate is at a staggering 45%. For setting Bangladesh’s economy on the right course in the midst of the ongoing recession, the government will need the help of its neighbors. If trade relations between these neighboring countries keep improving over the next few years, there is even the possibility of the emergence of an economic corridor in the region, leading to easier movement of goods and services.

The region as a whole and Bangladesh in particular, will benefit immensely from such a development. The time to decide is now and one can only hope that Bangladesh takes the road of regional cooperation on counter-terrorism and economic development.