Obama's Pakistan
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November , 2008
By Rohit Honawar
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If ever there was a need to remind ourselves of how rapidly the world is ‘shrinking’, one needed to look no further than the pictures being splashed across every news channel on every continent, of people rejoicing at the historic election victory of the 44th President of the United States of America. Barack Obama’s appeal has transcended colour, religion, socio-economic status and nationality to conclude an election which has not only given America her new Commander in Chief but, which for all arguable purposes has perhaps given the world its first truly global leader. Amid the euphoria of the election victory, Obama has begun taking steps towards the job at hand. From selecting his ‘team’ of capable staff and advisors to devising polices which aim to pull the US back from the brink of her worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, all eyes will be on the President elect and his ability to deliver on his promise of “change”. From a geo-political perspective Obama faces the uphill challenge of re-building America’s damaged reputation and, guiding the international community into the next decade through responsible and exemplary global governance. It is with this in mind, that Obama will need to devise a strategy which addresses the critical issue of Pakistan and the ‘war on terrorism’.
The first signs that Barack Obama intended to deliver on his promise of ‘change’ came early on in his election campaign, when the Senator from Illinois did not hesitate in accusing Pakistan of misusing US aid given for the war on terror to prepare for war against India. His decision to ‘call a spade a spade’ led analysts to be critical of his foreign policy inexperience, with his perceived maverick ways rattling more than a few feathers in Washington. However, it is perhaps this very trait which has won Obama his mass global appeal at a time when politicians deceive the electorate and pursue policies which have failed their countries and the international system. Obama’s criticism of former Pakistan President Musharraf’s wastage of $10 billion in US aid without having achieved tangible results was testament to the fact that he was prepared to hold political leaders accountable and, would not hesitate from re-framing policies of the Bush administration. In much the same way that he did not mince his words on climate change, health care and education, Obama has not shied away from signaling his intentions on a strategy for Pakistan – an aspect which will undoubtedly assume significance as his term in office unfolds.
In a clear indication of how he would address the war on terror in Pakistan, Obama publicly stated that “If we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to take them out, then I think that we have to act and we will take them out”. While there is not much to differentiate by way of his support for ‘hot pursuit’ into Pakistani territory and the Bush administrations clandestine or ‘Special Forces operations’ of the past, it can be argued that Obama’s ‘no-nonsense’ and straightforward approach in pursuing terrorist threats, will earn him greater rewards than what have been achieved since 2001. In conjunction, the Obama administration is likely to question the benefit of ‘showering’ Pakistan with military and economic aid, which on several occasions has been siphoned off for other purposes or, ‘lost’ within the system. This approach is likely to pressurise the Pakistani administration into further stepping up their efforts – with the knowledge that failure to do so, is unlikely to bring them the assured assistance that has come by way of the Bush administration.
Despite his hawkish posture vis-Ă -vis the war on terrorism and Pakistan, Obama’s acknowledgment to the importance of re-building America’s flayed reputation overseas, will ensure that the president elect puts into practice an emphasis on ‘soft power’ – an aspect which has arguably been overshadowed by the use of unilateral force during the Bush administration’s 8 years in office. Obama’s familiarity with the region is likely to see him balance the crack of the whip with non-military aid, with every possibility of a tilt towards humanitarian efforts based on the merit of Pakistan’s actions. Obama has already offered Pakistan’s struggling economy with $1.5 billion in non-military aid annually basis the Biden-Lugar plan and, is likely to deliver on his promise if he feels assured of Pakistan’s commitment to hunting down terrorists within their territory.
In the long run Obama’s ‘hands on’ and ‘no-nonsense’ approach to achieving his goals – both domestic and foreign – is likely to dictate the path of his presidency. With Afghanistan and Pakistan becoming the focal point for the future of the war on terrorism, Obama will not hesitate to come down strong on Pakistan’s administration if he believes they are not fully committed. Alternatively, the president elect will ‘reward’ Islamabad’s efforts and will make every effort to re-build the trust of the Pakistani people. Furthermore, while there are no indications of an end to US drone attacks and cross border operations, the importance attached by Obama on winning the support of Pakistan’s people is likely to ensure greater accountability in the eventuality of civilian deaths.
The future of Pakistan during Obama’s Presidency stands at an interesting juncture. The ‘correct’ decisions by the Pakistani administration will assure them of non-military aid and the opportunity to re-build their economy and country. Conversely, inaction against terrorist networks and the Taliban, and/or expectation of the US to unquestioningly provide them with monetary assistance, is likely to result in protracted US military operations. Obama’s emphasis on soft power as a ‘reward mechanism’ for action against terrorists and the importance attached to holding political leaders accountable, is likely to separate his term in office from that of President Bush and, should assist in strengthening Pakistan’s long term stability.