In today’s world, globalization alleviates information gaps to an increasing degree and renders it possible for something that happens in one part of the world to appear on TV five minutes later in another part of the world. However, there are still some parts of the world that the media does not cover and hardly anybody knows about them. These are the blind spots in world affairs and the Western Sahara can definitely count as one of those blind spots. Being a former Spanish colony, and subsequently annexed by Morocco, the country’s status has been under dispute for decades.

The Western Sahara was, until 1975, a Spanish colony, and indeed the last colony in Africa to be ‘decolonized’. The POLISARIO, a Sahrawi rebel movement working for the independence of Western Sahara, played a major role in driving out the Spanish. But not long after the Spanish left the Moroccans commenced the ‘Green March’, a procession of more than 300,000 Moroccans that laid claim over the newly ‘independent’ area of the Western Sahara. From the south, Mauritania annexed a third of the territory, but left in 1979. Since then, the Western Sahara was effectively viewed by Morocco as being under its sovereignty. The POLISARIO has fought bitter battles against the Spanish, and then against the Moroccans, and it was the Algerians that provided them with unwavering support.

Despite the existence of prolonged conflict, the international community has, for the most part, paid no attention to this troubled region. In those few instances in which the topic is discussed, discussants are quick to hail the cause of the POLISARIO, the rebel organization that has become the representative of a fictitious state called the Saharoui Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). Karin Scheele, MP of the European Parliament, has commissioned a report titled ‘Western Sahara – the people wait for their rights’, which clearly, although covertly, takes the side for the POLISARIO, and opposes the Moroccan ‘occupation’.

However, the situation in the Western Sahara has many facets and cannot simply be reduced to such obvious dichotomies. Indeed it would be wrong to argue that the Moroccans have a right to occupy the Western Sahara. However, good vs. evil pictures do not help here. The POLISARIO is undemocratic towards its own ‘citizenry’, and has been accused of mistreating Moroccan prisoners of war. With the failure of achieving their goal, to become an internationally accepted state entity (only a few dozen states have recognized the independence of the Saharoui), members of the POLISARIO may well turn to international crime and terrorism.

What should be taken into account more seriously is that the situation has created a dead end where neither Moroccans nor POLISARIO are able to make any advance. This situation threatens to destabilize the region which can become a hotbed for terrorism, especially with the POLISARIO leadership becoming increasingly erratic in its behaviour.

Today, the conflict situation is frozen, with neither Morocco, nor the POLISARIO, being flexible enough to make concessions regarding a political settlement. How long the status quo can be kept up by the POLISARIO is in question. International support is waning, especially after the group had to admit to scandalous mishaps regarding the treatment of Moroccan prisoners of war who were in detention for more than 30 years. While the POLISARIO aims to present itself as a legitimate representative of Saharoui people, its internal rule is highly undemocratic in that no leadership change has taken place over the course of the POLISARIO’s 30-year long existence.

Furthermore, there is speculation about the POLISARIO forcibly keeping refugees in the Algerian refugee camp near Tindouf. From these indications alone, it can clearly be observed that the POLISARIO is disintegrating both from within and from without. With chances for achieving their goal gradually disintegrating, the question is now: how will the POLISARIO react to these changes? Will its members resort to terrorism? Or will they disarm and become, finally, credible negotiators in the conflict?

A great majority of Saharouis, living both in the Western Sahara and in Morocco, already feel no connection whatsoever with the POLISARIO, even though their conscience may strongly be determined by their Saharoui identity. The POLISARIO, they say, did not strengthen, but embarrass their national pride.