Following months of political ambiguity and turmoil which oversaw the complete subversion of the constitution, political stability currently being enjoyed in Bangladesh, has been ushered in, not by a democratically elected government with the backing of popular mandate, but by a caretaker government having the tacit support of the armed forces. It is these developments that merit a closer view of the events that have led to present day Bangladesh and assess what the future portends for the fledgling nation state.

Since its inception in 1971, Bangladesh has never really enjoyed the advantages of democracy with thirteen different heads of government, and at least four military coups. A fledgling and weak centre, overwhelming influence of the armed forces, widespread corruption at all levels of the government, growing sceptre of Islamic forces and terrorist groups, and, economic instability were all hampering the growth of Bangladesh as a democratic nation state. This scenario has only been perpetuated further, since 2001 when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led four party alliance came to power and it was this government that triggered the latest constitutional and political crisis in Dhaka. Desperate to cling on to power upon the expiration of their term in 2006 and unsure of its electoral victory, the Zia government subverted the constitution in order to hand over power to a partisan Caretaker Government (CG) comprising of BNP loyalists. In a move that shocked many, the Zia administration appointed President Iajuddin Ahmed as head of the caretaker government, citing the opposition’s failure to agree on the names of proposed consensus candidates. Thus for the first time in the history of Bangladesh, the President of the country was also the head of a supposed ‘bi partisan’ caretaker government meant to oversee the elections. The President was soon followed by members of the CG, hand picked for their loyalty to the BNP, thereby removing any semblance of impartiality the Government was supposed to project. This one move was rightly met with political outrage and condemnation by opposition parties and intellectuals within Bangladesh and by foreign countries alarmed at the turn of political events in the country. This move was also singularly responsible for the downward spiral marked by country wide strikes, withdrawal of nomination papers by the main opposition alliance, political manoeuvring and spreading violence. A stage was soon reached wherein the BNP and its allies formed the entire electoral field for the general elections.

However, despite all these developments, the decision by the CG ordering the armed forces to man all electoral outposts alarmed a number of countries concerned over the outcome of such a move in a region marked by military governments and influences. Asking the armed forces to ensure law and order in the country during elections is a commonly accepted norm. This time though, the armed forces were called from the barracks almost a fortnight prior to the January 22nd elections. Viewing this as an alarming development, widespread condemnation of the move soon followed with threats of aid cut, withdrawal of UN missions meant to oversee the elections and the flight of foreign representatives from the country.

With the political atmosphere in Dhaka becoming more and more ambiguous and vitiated, the pre-emptive developments that followed took everyone by surprise. Overnight, President Iajuddin Ahmed resigned as chief advisor and swore in Dr. Fakiruddin Ahmed as the head of the caretaker government. Soon the entire interim cabinet resigned and was replaced by the present one. An emphasis was placed on including members holding the image of honest public servants. Once they were in place with their respective job assignments, a veritable crack down was initiated across the board on corruption targeting political parties, politicians and bureaucrats and simultaneously a clamp down on terrorist groups and their activities was also launched. With sustained positive developments like the above, Nobel Peace prize winner Dr. Mohammed Yunus announced his plans for setting up a political party and thereby his intention of entering Dhaka’s political theatre.

With the main events of the past 6 months having been encapsulated above, certain pertinent questions need to be addressed. For one, divination cannot be cited for the overnight resignation of President Iajuddin and his replacement by Fakruddin as chief advisor of the caretaker government. There was definitely some external or internal pressure and it is difficult to identify the players responsible for such a silent revolution. What can be stated, however, and with a degree of certainty, is that the armed forces were aware of the impending change and had given the upheaval its tacit support. Similarly the sudden announcement by Dr Mohammad Yunus declaring his intention to join the chaotic polity of Dhaka can be viewed sceptically. On the face of it, his rationale makes perfect political sense given the fact that the onus right now, for all and sundry, is on projecting honest and untainted politicians. At the same time, reports have been emanating from various quarters of the liberal press alluding to the support Dr Yunus’ ambitions have been receiving from the very forces that had first affected the change. If indeed these are true then, by implication, there is cause for worry, as an external power strong enough to affect regime change is present in the region.

Whilst these questions continue to mystify many, the CG is pushing ahead with its plans aimed at exorcising corruption and terrorism from the country on the one hand, and introducing electoral reforms and transparent bureaucracy on the other. While their efforts are to be lauded it indeed remains to be seen whether the impact of such top down efforts can be sustained over duration of time. The initiatives seem to be a response to the growing frustration within ordinary Bangladeshis at corruption plaguing the growth of the country. However by merely identifying and arresting a hundred odd, known corrupt officials, politicians and terrorists may not be sufficient in weeding out the problems from the country per se. Also, whether or not these moves will have an impact on the growth of Islamic forces, as they also suffer the brunt of the crackdown, remains to be seen. Any impact or lack thereof, this crackdown has on Islamic forces will directly determine the future of Bangladesh as a moderate and secular state or its emergence as an Islamic nation state.

The long term impact on political parties like the BNP and Awami League and its leaders, currently being targeted as part of the anti corruption drive, is not positive. Not only are they facing acute embarrassment with the arrest of senior party functionaries and having to deal with the possibility of a split within the ranks, both the BNP and AL are experiencing a tough time countering the growing popularity of Dr. Yunus. If elections are held within the next six months, there can be no doubt that the party that grabs the lead will be that of Dr. Yunus. In the event that the anti corruption drive diminishes the political strength of both BNP and AL to such an extent that they cease to exist as viable opposition parties, the possibility of another new national party cannot be discounted.

The impact these changes are having on Bangladesh’s bilateral relations with India also cannot be discerned as yet. So far, status quo is being observed between New Delhi and Dhaka. However given the fact that the role of an external power in the changes currently being witnessed in Bangladesh, it would be prudent for New Delhi to ensure that its strategic interests in the region are not negated. Meanwhile the million dollar question that remains to be answered is when the climate would be conducive enough in Bangladesh for elections to be held and who will emerge as the leader of this ‘free’ nation state.