This is not the fate Pervez Musharraf envisioned for himself. Not in 1999, when as Pakistan's military chief, he took over in a coup that sent the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to jail first, and then to exile. Not in the early 2000s, when as President, he helped Pakistan become America's foremost ally in the war on terror. Not in 2008, when he left Pakistan for a lavish exile in various glamorous locales. Not in the half decade after that, when he jetted across the world, making a fortune (upwards of 150,000 dollars for a single day) on book and lecture tours. Not in 2010 when he launched his own political party, the All Pakistan Muslim League. Certainly not in March 2013, when after years of promising to, he finally returned to Pakistan to contest, and he hoped win, the general elections.

Instead, the former Chief of Army Staff and President of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf is currently under house arrest in Islamabad even as a litany of charges continues to pile up in courts across Pakistan.

Musharraf had been vowing to return to Pakistan for years; no one really thought he would actually risk it. Pakistan watchers had begun to joke about all the times his return had been imminent. He is coming back this week. No, no. He's back next week. No, really, he's definitely coming back this time.

When he did return in March 2013, all indications point to the fact that he expected a Benazir-like welcome. In 2007, when former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of people thronged the airports and streets to cheer her on and catch a glimpse of her. Numerous serious and credible threats had been issued on her life. Militants attacked her political rallies. Despite this, hundreds of thousands of people, maybe even millions, attended her rallies. Her assassination plunged the entire country into mourning.

Musharraf's return was not met with as much enthusiasm. In fact, as Pakistan was preparing for its first ever democratic handover of power from one civilian government to the next, hardly anyone seemed to care very much that the former President had returned. A few thousand people showed up at the airport, which his campaign staff made sure to exaggerate to show off to the media. Routine statements re-iterating their positions were made by all political parties. All in all his arrival was met with a collective shrug.

And then, promptly, not only was he disqualified from contesting the elections, but he was also arrested and place under house arrest, instead of jail, as a small courtesy to the office he held for 8 years. There he sits today, waiting to find out what will happen next. And hardly anyone seems inclined to help, at least publicly.

Leading the civilian government is the newly elected, or should we say re-elected, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party. In quick order he installed a party loyalist Mamnoon Hussain as President. His party controls the Senate. Nawaz Sharif is also the man that Musharraf deposed to seize power in 1999. So it is safe to assume that not much help will be forthcoming from that quarter. The other major political power, the Pakistan People's Party, led by former President Asif Ali Zardari, also widower of the slain Benazir Bhutto, is unlikely to jump to his defence either. Musharraf is outright accused of murdering Bhutto by many Pakistani conspiracy theorists, while a significant number of people, including plenty of legitimate analysts believe that he contributed to her death by not providing her with adequate security. In fact, he stands accused of the latter at present in the courts.

Just as the Executive or Legislative branches of the government show reticence in supporting Musharraf, he can also expect the Judiciary to display the same. Actually, Musharraf can expect that and more from the Judiciary in Pakistan. The Chief Justice of Pakistan's Supreme Court, Iftekhar Choudhury's suspension in 2007 is widely credited for Musharraf's eventual ouster and downfall. A man of tremendous popularity and the recipient of enormous goodwill from all branches of government, Iftekhar Choudhury has also shown himself to be a man who can hold a grudge. And even though he is set to retire this year, his legacy and stature mean that his successor will probably not look too kindly upon Musharraf either.

And finally, there is the most powerful of all Pakistani institutions and entities, the "Establishment" as the Army and ISI are collectively known. Surely, as the former head of the Pakistan Army, Musharraf can expect his former comrades to step in to help, can't he? Well, ten years ago, this would have certainly been the case. However, as it stands, any aid to Musharraf is hindered by some factors. One, the current Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Kayani has taken great pains to step back the Army's public involvement in democratic and legal affairs. Two, Musharraf's colleagues in the Armed Forces had repeatedly advised him to stay out of Pakistan and not return, advice he did not heed. Three, some analysts believe that the Army has become embarrassed by Musharraf's insistence on coming back and his refusal to leave in the belief that he will be acquitted of all charges.

All this means that Pervez Musharraf is where he did not imagine himself to be, in jail with little to no help forthcoming. Once the most powerful man in all of Pakistan, he must now lay himself at the mercy of a justice system that actively disfavours him, a government that is not inclined to help him and an army that is keen to not be seen as making any strident efforts on his behalf.

This is not to say that the former President is without any resources. Indications are that the Army is quietly extending itself in trying to secure an agreement that will let him leave the country. It has also beefed up his security. Friends on the outside like the Saudi Arabian government have also reportedly been lobbying the government for an exile. A recent court order unfroze his assets in Pakistan and abroad. However, these are only small steps forward; significant hurdles remain and he is still under lockdown. What's more, jail or exile, the outcome of Musharraf's current predicament is unlikely to significantly impact Pakistan's trajectory. For a man so determined to create a legacy in his country, irrelevance may be a harsher punishment than prison.  

This is definitely not the fate Pervez Musharraf envisioned for himself.