The Strategic Foresight Group, an Indian based think tank, convened a workshop on "Water Security in the Middle East"in Montreux, Switzerland, a few days ago. His Royal Highness Prince Hassan Ben Talal was the keynote speaker.

The group�€™s Dr Sundeep Waslekar and Dr Ilmas Futehally had co-authored, earlier, a comprehensive compendium of data on the cost of conflict in the Middle East.

Water security in our region has been the focus of attention of many seminars and forums in the world, both as a general topic and in connection with water resources that are frequently believed to be a trigger for cooperation. Some closely interested parties have speculatedthat water would be a source of conflict. Others echoed the outcry of water wars and, interestingly, singled out the Middle East as the theatre of such wars.

I subscribe to the thesis that assigns to water resources, especially the shared water bodies, the role of a catalyst for cooperation. For one thing, water by its nature is used to extinguish fires, never to ignite them. It is indispensable for all forms of life, but is not a requirement for destruction and annihilation.

Why, then, do writers, journalists and sometimes experts venture to write columns in famous media outlets, warning about water wars in the Middle East?

One reason, I think, is the arid and semi-arid character of the region, coupled with high rates of population growth. But more importantly, the reason is the instability that has characterised the region for many decades before and after the eviction of Palestinians from their homeland.

The proclamation of the state of Israel, at the expense of Palestinians who lost their homes and sense of direction, has been the root cause of instability, immobility and diversion of national resources ofArab countries, away from the needs for social and economic development, in favour of armament and national defence requirements.

It is thought, then, that such a fragile security environment and the imbalances in the population-water resources equation and the lower middle income in most countries of the region form such a combination that could bring about conflict and wars.

But why was water thought to be the cause of wars?

I think the lack of a comprehensive look at the conditions of the region could suggest that. Instead of warnings issued about water wars, an honest analysis would take a comprehensive look and cite a combination of conditions and causes that could lead to war. The much-publicised 1967 war in the region as a water war is missing the whole point.The flash point of that war, as declassified documents in the US National Archives show, was the evacuation of the UN peacekeeping forces from the Sinai in May 1967 and the closure of the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping.

It is true, however that the conflict over the Jordan waters have caused tensions in the region since 1964, but it is the combination of all other causes that stood behind the war then, as it stands behind the tension and violence here today.

The riparian parties to the Jordan basin are Syria, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinians. Lebanon claims it still has territories occupied by Israel and Israel denies that, while Syria mostly keeps quiet about it; Syria has the Golan Heights still occupied by Israel and both countries host Palestinian refugees since 1948.

Israel and the Palestinians have been locked in a dispute that is over a century old. Jordan and Israel concluded a peace treaty in the hope that it will be part of comprehensive peace in the Middle East, with a solution to the 1.9 million Palestinians living in 13 Jordanian refugee camps. Arab countries condition the end of their boycott of Israel to its withdrawal from Arab territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Many experts believe that only when comprehensive peace is achieved we can expect meaningful regional cooperation to commence. When that happens, water renders itself as the lead candidate to trigger cooperation. It has been well established that the population-water resources equation in the countries of the Jordan basin is tilted towards more needs than the water resources can supply. This imbalance is of varying degrees. It is highest in the Palestinian territories and in Jordan, and a bit less so in Israel, and less in both Lebanon and Syria.

The Middle East peace process that was kicked off in Madrid in October 1991 carried high hopes for an end to the century-old tension in the region. It was regrettably aborted in the late 1990s for several well-known reasons. The violence that ensued in the Palestinian territories and in Israel has been regrettable and caused the loss of very valuable lives and property. It is feared that the hoped-for confidence-building measures will take much longer than it would have without the outbreak of hostilities.

Achieving comprehensive peace in the region is imperative. It is also a necessary condition to commence meaningful regional cooperation. If the parties to the conflict are unable to talk to each other, it becomes the duty of the civilised world to open indirect channels of communications and to help establish the bases on which a peace initiative can be launched.

One is seeing some light at the end of the long tunnel due to the press reports that talk of a role of third parties to initiate indirect talks between Israel and both the Palestinians and Syria. The region has, for generations, been suffering because of confrontation and wars.

In his keynote speech, Prince Hassan called for the establishment of a regional water and energy community. While expressing concern about growing water scarcity across Asia and Africa, he emphasised the urgency of trans-boundary cooperation. He suggested that water and environment should be seen as "regional commons".

Prince Hassan said: "We need to develop a regional water security in the Middle East.�€

Citing the examples of Rhine River basin and Switzerland's role in addressing problems arising out of water imbalances in Central Asia, he advocated a cooperative approach to manage trans-boundary water resources. He also underlined the importance of technical management of the water sector.

Almost all countries in the region will experience substantial decline in per capita water availability by 2030. Several sources of freshwater are already shrinking and suffering from pollution and contamination. In view of magnitude of crisis, he stressed that there is no option but to improve demand management and explore cooperation.

The initiatives undertaken by the Strategic Foresight Group in cooperation with the Swiss and Swedish governments is highly commendable.