Water flow depletion may cause irritants among neighbours 

Indian think tank says in report on common rivers 

A leading Indian think tank has warned that diplomatic relations among Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal are likely to be strained due to depletion in water flows through trans-boundary rivers caused by both human interventions and natural reasons and subsequent increase in internal displacement and migration of people across the region.

It expressed concern over India’s river-linking project and China’s plan to build a dam on Yarlung Tsangpo river, which flows as Brahmaputra in Bangladesh and India, as these projects would substantially reduce water flows and cause devastation at the downstream.

‘Relations between India and China may become strained due to competition over expanding influence in Nepal and especially, if China decides to build a dam or diversion project at Great Bend over Yarlung Tsangpo,’ Strategic Foresight Group (SSG), a Mumbai-based think tank, said in a report titled ‘The Himalayan Challenge’.

It said relations between India and Bangladesh may become strained due to a decrease in flow of rivers from India to Bangladesh and increase in refugee flow from Bangladesh to India.

Likewise, relations between India and Nepal may become strained due to plans of either party to build dams on their side of the border, said SSG in its report which is scheduled to be released at Singapore International Water Week next week.

‘Though this deterioration of relations is unlikely to result in inter-state military confrontation, it can lead to new external alliances, producing fresh alignments and polarisation in Asia compromising the internal options of each country,’ according to the report.

Water scarcity, shortage of rainfall and their cumulative effects will lead to both internal displacement and migration of 50 to 70 million people in these countries by next 40 years, it said.

The SSG suggested for collaboration among the four countries on the management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers by forming a Himalayan Rivers Commission (HRC).

Ainun Nishat, a leading water resources expert in the region, however, differed with the idea of forming an umbrella organisation like HRC for managing the regional rivers.

Describing the natural reasons of water scarcity in the near future, the SSG said, the Ganges in India, which is Padma in Bangladesh, and their tributaries, are expected to lose between 15 per cent to 30 per cent water by the second half of the century as the Himalayan glaciers will be seriously affected by global warming.

The Brahmaputra in Bangladesh and India will also lose about 7 per cent to 14 per cent of the annual flow due to depletion of glaciers.

While glacial melting will eventually reduce river flow in the low season, an increase in temperature in some areas will cause heavy precipitation concentrated for a few days during July-September. This will increase the risk of flooding.

At the same time, demand for water will increase due to growth of population and economic development.

It will not be possible to use the available water resources because of pollution and losses caused by inefficient water management.

The cumulative effect of water scarcity, disruptive precipitation patterns, flooding, desertification, pollution, and soil erosion will affect food availability, livelihood opportunities in rural areas and cause desertification, soil erosion, sea-level rise. Construction of dams will lead to displacement and migration of 50 to 70 million people in the four countries by 2050.

The Himalayan river basins in China, Nepal, India and Bangladesh are home to about 1.3 billion people, almost 20 per cent of the world’s population and almost 50 per cent of the total population of these countries.

The SSG also stressed the need for building trust and confidence through practical cooperation including scientific exchanges, hydro-electricity, irrigation, trade, transit among the four countries for creating grounds for formation of Himalayan Rivers Commission.

BRAC University vice chancellor Ainun Nishat said the idea of forming river commission is not new in South Asia as Bangladesh was asking for forming separate river commissions for major rivers for several decades.

Forming a ‘super commission’ for several Himalayan rivers ‘is impractical’, he said.

‘There is necessity of forming separate river commission for each major river involving the countries concern. Ganges River Commission can be formed involving Bangladesh, India and Nepal and Brahmaputra River Commission can be formed with Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and India as its members,’ Nishat, also a former member of India-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission, said.

There is no scope of mixing the issues of the two separate rivers, Ganges and the Brahmaputra, he said.

Mixing the issues of Ganges and Brahmaputra and forming a single commission to manage them will be considered as ‘giving justification’ to the river-linking project of India, he said.

India has been implementing multi-billion dollar projects to interlink several trans-boundary rivers to unilaterally divert water for internal use