�€œThe Second Freedom is the real freedom the countries of South Asia need from authoritarianism, repression, corruption, communalism, poverty, illiteracy, disease and conflict.�€ So says Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), a Mumbai-based think-tank of the International Centre for Peace Initiatives, South Asia�€™s longest sustaining conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy institution.

Its just-released report The Second Freedom: South Asian Challenge 2005-2025 is a research work in a tabloidesque format, with near-irreverant headlines, quotes and style. To publish a formidable study that covers political, economic and social life of South Asia in this way is itself remarkable; that the study is butteressed by unimpeachable facts and figures is even more praiseworthy.

It is always difficult to make statistics readable �€“ statistics, in folklore, are usually set side-by-side with lies and damn lies �€“ and are seen as aides to sleep. But Second Freedom has stats and thoughts which will jerk you awake.

The books covers the countries of the South Asian Region, namely, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Bhutan (Maldives is a prominent absentee). South Asia, which was once upon a time the wealthiest part of the world, is now competing with Sub-Saharan Africa to be the poorest one. The SFG study is an introspection into what is wrong and what can be right.

South Asia has 25 per cent of the world�€™s population, two per cent of global GDP and less than one per cent of global trade. In the circumstances, the countries of the region are expected to pull up their socks and try to better the lives of the people. But is the leadership ready to do so? Are people ready to change the way they see each other? The answer, my friend, is blowing in the monsoon wind.

The SFG report covers such things as farmers, women, trade, terrorism and politics. It sees these issues as they are and tells it like it is. At the end, there is a conclusion which tells you what institutions and individuals can do to set things right.

Some of the headlines are hilarious but the content that follow are piercing and impactful. For example, there is a section on women: Better Half, Worse Off. The chapter on Nepal and Pakistan is titled His Majesty, His Military (referring to the Nepalese king and Pakistani military). Tumbling Transport gives an overview of regional transportation (or lack of it) while Dalits and Damsels highlight the role of the lower castes and women in the Nepal insurrection.

Low level of human development in South Asia seems natural when a large segment of population that is dependent on agriculture has to share a small proportion of national income. In Farmer, the Prisoner you learn that in all countries of the region, import of fertilisers and other inputs are highly regulated. �€œThe result is that South Asian farmers pay more than double the international market prices while fertiliser companies grow on market inefficiencies.�€

All countries in the region restrict the sale, lease and transfer of land in rural areas, undermining the potential of land as a tradable asset. They suffer from fragmentation of land due to progressive distribution of family assets. On the other hand, Pakistan, Nepal, and parts of Indian have large farmers with massive land holdings, co-existing with progressively marginalised small farmers. All countries in the region have a weak irrigation policy. Half the water does not reach the intended destination. India has not brought more than half of its cultivated land under irrigation.

Life is not easy for children who manage to survive beyond the age of five. Almost 40 per cent of the children in Bangladesh, India and Nepal and over 50 per cent in Pakistan drop out of school before they complete primary education. In the absence of any education or skills, they remain menial labourers.

As a result they are unable to escape their dependence on the farming sector with the lowest level of return for their labour. �€œThey exist, but do not live a life beyond mere struggling for survival, unless they can manage to join a criminal gang or a terrorist network. South Asian democracies have provided death and suffering to its farmers in return for the largest number of votes and large quantities of milk and food. Is this the failure of economics or politics?�€

The situation of women in the South Asian Region is one of the worst in the world. For every 100 men, there are 93 women, against the global norm of 106 women for every 100 men. This reflects passive and active infanticide through the unequal allocation of health, nutrition and other resources.

Girls born in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are 30-40 per cent more likely to die before their fifth birthday than boys. Culture-specific forms of violence include rape, sexual harassment, honour killings, incest, trafficking, acid attacks, public mutilation, stove-burnings and forced temple prostitution.

South Asian economies excel in inequitable performance. In a telling graphic, SFG has illustrated regional trade, comparing it with trade in other blocs. Intra-ASEAN trade is (in US dollars) 38 billion, intra-NAFTA is 38 billion, intra-EU is 64 billion and intra SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is only five billion.

�€œCross-border trade among member countries would get energised only if issues such as treatment of foreign investments, transportation, tourism, investment, insurance, energy, movement of labour and abolishing barriers to trade in services are included,�€ notes SFG. But who is listening? What are the prospects for true regional integration? Not very promising, since �€œit is difficult to visualise countries that go to war over rocky bits of terrain and which deny over-flight permissions to neighbours on the slightest provocation being able to undertake complex and synchronised multi-lateral measures.�€

However, smuggling (cutely called �€œinformal trade�€) is booming. Says the report starkly: �€œInformal trade matters more than formal trade in South Asia. In fact, only India-Sri Lanka trade is dominated by formal channels. The sub-continent is under the spell of smugglers.�€ As per the latest available statistics, total informal trade exceeded US $3 billion, which is more than the formal trade.

India�€™s informal trade with Pakistan is almost ten times the formal trade, while its formal trade with Nepal and Bangladesh is equal to the formal trade itself, and its informal trade with Sri Lanka is almost one-third the formal trade.

Of the US $2 billion informal trade between India and Pakistan, almost half is traded through third countries like Dubai, Central Asia and Afghanistan, while the rest is through cross border informal trade.

Here is a shocking statistic. �€œIf India and Pakistan, the two largest economies of the region, grow consistently at six per cent during the next two decades, South Asia will be more than 25 years behind at least 50 countries in the world in 2025.�€ The devil is in the details and SFG has pounced on damned, lying, statistics. �€œIn 2004,�€ it says, �€œa simple revision of the national accounts system enable Pakistan to increase its per capita income by over 50 per cent in a matter of two years, from US $408 in 2002 to US $650 in 2004. It further improved to US $700 by January 2005.�€ If Pakistan�€™s outstanding statistical skills are imported by other South Asian countries, SFG opines, all of them will probably surpass the entire world in per capita by the end of the decade. If only numbers could feed and lies console!

Looking forward to the �€˜Class of 2025,�€™ the report says there is no such thing as a middle class in South Asia. There is business class, bike economy class and bullock cart economy class. The business class economy is the segment that can afford to purchase cars, computers and other symbols of global economy. Those belonging to bike economy class can afford to purchase two wheelers and some basic comforts. Those belonging to bullock cart economy class have no access to market because of low purchasing power.

If the region grows at 6-7 per cent during 2005-2025, there will be 1.2 billion people in the bullock cart economy class in the region in 2025, more than India�€™s entire population in 2005. South Asia in 2025 will have the daunting challenge of over 800 million people in the bullock economy in India and almost 400 million in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. If the rate of GDP growth slides below 6-7 per cent, the number of people living in the bullock cart segment will swell further.

Nepal and Pakistan have concentrated on enriching His Majesty and His Military respectively. So long as these two institutions dominate the two countries, the rest of the population, except the small charmed circles around the monarchy and military, can be certain of gradual impoverishment.

India and Bangladesh do not need the monarchy or the military to distort the economy. They have bureaucrats, who can inspect, arrest, squeeze entrepreneurs and kill their entrepreneurial spirit. India�€™s inspection raj will deliver an opportunity loss of US $2,000 billion in missed industrial growth over the next two decades. In Bangladesh the number of visits by inspectors can be anywhere from 10 to 40 per cent.

SFG has facts to prove that IT, supposed to be a magic wand, will not place the region on a new development path. �€œTo expect it to bring prosperity to large sections of the population is an illusion,�€ it says. On the other hand, the sector that is actually booming is the extremist economy.

South Asia has a large terror economy with about 330,000 armed combatants and over a million-strong supporting network. The total visible Gross Terror-economy Product (GTP) of the region is US $2 billion. Invisible GTP is normally 3-4 times that of visible GTP. In 2025, the GTP could be around five per cent of the region�€™s GDP. �€œThere is a high risk that South Asian economies will get terrorised, after significant sections of them having been criminalised and militarised,�€ SFG warns. It points out already the GTP is US $8 billion in 2005 or one per cent of the region�€™s GDP of US $750 billion in 2005.

It is not easy for business travellers to fly directly from one capital or commercial centre to another. The connectivity between seaports is weaker. Maritime ports are not competitive compared to other regions. Chronic energy shortages, especially in India, will put many a spoke in development plans. �€œThe increase in India�€™s commercial energy demand is expected to be the highest in the world spurred by sustained economic growth, rise in income levels, electricity generation and transportation.�€

Governance in South Asia is at peril. More than 50 politicians at different levels have been killed in Sri Lanka and more than 500 in Kashmir in the last 15 years. In Bangladesh, at least eight politicians were killed in the last two years. At this rate, a dozen heads and maybe a thousand politicians at lower levels will have to fear for their lives in the next two decades.

Second Freedom is a painstaking piece of documentation. The research team, consisting of Isabel Bruto da Costa, Kumud-Pallavi Mutalik, Leena Pillai, Namrata Giri and Urmila Venugopalan and advised by Sundeep Waslekar, has done its homework. They have collected the information from a vast array of sources. The presentation is outstanding. With its large type, tasteful colouring, precision graphics an accurate mapping, the book is a delight to read.

However, apart from typos, there are some mistakes of statement. �€œThe declining credibility of politicians is also reflected in the shortening life of every government.�€ (Politics at Peril). Is it due to declining credibility or ineptness? There is no mention of National Congress Party among big regional parties (Deepening of Democracy).

�€œThere is a growing effort to build mosques and madrassas in the Terai region in Nepal, bordering India. Between 1984 and 2004, approximately 275 mosques and madrassas have come up in the districts of Rupandehi, Banke, Kapilvastu and Bardiya.�€ (Red Terror�€™s Flirtation with GreenTerror). �€œMost of the (terrorist) groups based in South Asia have regional or local ambitions. However, some of them have global ambitions. Their strategy is to takeover the states of Pakistan and Bangladesh, break or weaken the state of India, and then use assets of the three countries to launch a worldwide jihad�€ (Global Brands).

These are absurd and alarmist statements. I wonder how many in the SFG team have visited a mosque or read a madrassa syllabus. How are mosques and madrassas linked to terrorism? This assertion was made during the Sangh Parivar-led NDA government that ruled India. But nothing was proved except that it was an attempt to malign a particular religion. It is sad to see SFG falling an unwilling victim to a smear campaign. As for jihadi ambitions, it can be said the world is suffering more from born-again angst than the limited aims of South Asian jihadis.

Incidentally, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the fountainhead of Hindu fundamentalism, is not mentioned in Second Freedom, though the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal figure in it.

There is a call for a special system for preventing discrimination and violence against minority sects such as Ahmadiyas and Shias in Pakistan and Bangladesh. How about having something similar for minorities in India too?