Karachi and Mumbai are the two economic engines of Pakistan and India. Presently Karachi is undergoing a process of electoral churning, while Mumbai is in the grip of heavy rains. Karachi has lately become the center of debate for national, regional and international problems and issues, while on the other hand Mumbai has become the focus for the unveiling of the economic, political, commercial, societal, military and financial perspectives related to South Asia. In Karachi the think tanks are involved in pondering over issues dealing with provincial autonomy, construction of dams, the utility or lack of it concerning democratic institutions, environment related issues and ways to confront terrorism. On the other hand in Mumbai there is intense debate raging on topics encompassing national wealth, growth of natural resources, burden of poverty, situation as facing farmers and women, non-existent communication network across the region, non-visible and non-traditional modes of commerce, cost of conflicts, economic extremism, cooperation and confrontation, dream-merchants and other innumerable issues pertaining to different countries of South Asia for the next twenty years.

Strategic Foresight Group is one of the institutions of Mumbai, which has worked ceaselessly in order to elucidate the numerous problems as faced by South Asia. This institution has been responsible for bringing out exhaustive papers of vital importance on a vast range of issues and has had them published as per international specifications. Some of the publications of this group include �€“ Pakistan ka Mustaqbil (Future of Pakistan); Bharat ke Mustaqbil par Asr-e-Nau Ghaur (Re-thinking India�€™s future); Ret ki Hulchul (Shifting Sands); Pakistan ke Masail (Pakistan Provinces); Hatmi Byaan (Final Settlement); Tanazaat ki Laagat (Cost of Conflict), which are some of the exemplary ones worth mentioning. Recently this Group publicly unveiled its latest report on future perspectives in relation to South Asia by the name of �€œThe Second Freedom: South Asian Challenge 2005-2025.�€

Sundeep Waslekar and Ilmas Futehally are the spiritual honchos of Strategic Foresight Group, which also has in its team Isabel Bruto da Costa, Kumud Pallavi Mutalik, Leena Pillai, Namrata Giri, Semu Bhatt and Urmilaa Venugopalan. I have had a very long acquaintance with Sundeep Waslekar and Ilmas Futehally and we have had the opportunity of working on numerous occasions. We tended to agree with one another on countless problems and issues, while reserving the option to differ with each other�€™s perspectives on innumerable times. The future of South Asia is a topic that is very close to the heart of Sundeep Waslekar and based on past and present trends, circumstances and calamities, he has strived to present the likely futuristic scenarios for the region. The present publication under consideration comprises of nearly 100 pages in which not a single facet of South Asian life has been left untouched.

Enshrined within the foreword of this book �€œThe Second Freedom: South Asian Challenges�€ is a fundamental question raised by Sundeep Waslekar, driving home the point that in the next twenty years the combined population of South Asia would be 2 billion. This was the population of the entire universe in 1925 and ten times more than the global population as prevalent prior to 1800. It is worth pondering whether the countries of South Asia possess the capacity to bear the burden of this burgeoning population. In the last 2000 years this region has borne witness to profound inventions and innovations which have left an everlasting impact on the world. The region has been the epitome of an extraordinary display of cultural and spiritual prowess. This is the region which thousands of years in the past presented the myriad splendors of Mohenjo Daro. It is the very same region which gave the world the universally acknowledged universities of ancient civilizations in the form of Taxila and Nalanda Universities. Jaipur was studded with ancient artifacts and this was precisely the time when Europe was considered to be primitive and thus lagging behind. The people of this region have always been religiously conscious and it has been the birthplace of several religions. This was the era when the Church consolidated its grip on the people of Europe and there was the prevalence and acceptance of believers of only the Christian faith in Europe whereas South Asia was experiencing the ultimate, exultant, cultural renaissance brought about by the confluence of myriad religious influences. In the fifteenth century when the entire universe was riddled with factionalism and divided into thousand kingdoms and fiefdoms, it was the region of South Asia which was an oasis of peace and stability, much like the Ottoman Caliphate.

In the past 1000 years the rulers of South Asia established commercial links with various countries around the globe, without once being gripped with the disposition to possess regions and make them their colonies. If a stranger from the outside world had attempted to venture into South Asia in the 15th century, he would have been dumbfounded, that the region in which the Chinese disallowed shipping activities to outsiders, compelling them to venture further in the search of fertile lands, leading to their inadvertent stumbling into the riches of South Asia would one day rise as the super power of the 21st Century. It is a different reality though that the region which was considered to be one of the two most prosperous, two and a half centuries back degenerated into becoming one of the poorest in the world.

Prior to coming to terms with the positive developments that may accrue in the coming twenty years, it would be worth the while to take an introspective look at events of the past twenty years. If the barometer of introspection is assigned to the period covering the past twenty years then this troublesome reality confronts us in the form of the abysmal nature of inactivity and isolation that has plagued South Asia. Nepal and Pakistan are two countries of the region whose per capita income has failed to show any sign of progress in the past twenty years. It seems that the PCI of these two countries has hovered between 200 to 400 dollars. All these calculations have been derived from the Human Resources Development Report 1994-2004.Though Bangladesh had been lagging behind Pakistan it has managed to bridge the gap as far as the PCI is concerned in the last twenty years as its previous PCI of 200 dollars has increased to nearly 400. In 1985, the PCI of India was comparatively less than Pakistan but it has shown a steady increase to the extent that it has touched 500 dollars. Sri Lanka has managed to register a two-fold increase in its PCI, which has increased from 400 dollars to near about 800 dollars. In comparison to other countries of the region Sri Lanka was afflicted with numerous problems in the past twenty years. It is common knowledge that it has been facing the armed rebellion of the Tamil Tigers. The Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority population of the country have had to pay a severe price for this internecine war. Things had reached a stage in the past when most of the northern parts of Sri Lanka were on the verge of passing into the hands of the rebels and apart from Jaffna the Tamil Tigers had managed to establish control over most parts in the north. The spectacular improvement as registered by the Sri Lankan economy pertaining to its PCI is all the more remarkable considering that in spite of being plagued by internal strife the economic policies of the government continued and thus prevented a major impediment to overall economic progress. Sri Lanka despite being a socialist republic has allowed liberal fiscal policies to leave a deep imprint on the economic orientation of the country. During the reign of President Jayawerdane and Premdasa great emphasis was attached in promoting liberal economic polices which in turn subverted the socialist character of the country. It was nevertheless during the tenure of President Chandrika Kumaratunga that greater primacy was attached to the eradication of poverty in the country. She was the daughter of a national hero and thus didn�€™t allow any compromise on the nationalistic ideals of the country. She staved off the challenges as posed to the country from the forces of extremism and separatism. Also she was the target of an assassination attempt from which she managed to survive by the skin of her teeth. She was grievously injured in this assassination bid made on her life. Apart from this the carnage as visited by the suicidal attackers at the Bandarnaike International Airport in Colombo is unprecedented in the annals of South Asian history.

If the PCI of the neighboring countries for the past twenty years is taken into consideration, very starling revelations come to light. For example with regard to china where the PCI was less than 500 dollars in 1985, but which has progressed by leaps and bounds and presently the PCI is hovering a little over a thousand dollars. If memory serves me right the Thai monarch undertook a trip to Pakistan in 1963, wherein he also visited Karachi, which was the capital of the country at that time. On his return from Pakistan to Bangkok, the Thai monarch Bhumpool Ilyavaich wrote an article in which he expressed his great distress at the primitiveness as prevalent in Bangkok in direct contrast to the societal progress as achieved by Karachi. He implored that the people of Bangkok should emulate those from Karachi. He had praised the clean and well scrubbed streets and markets of Karachi as well as the majestic beauty of the city, but things have completely gone out of hand since then. The modernization and subsequent progress as registered by present day Bangkok has left Karachi far behind. In 1985 the PCI of another Asian country, South Korea was 2800 dollars but it has managed to register quantum success in increasing its PCI to the extent that it has nearly touched 13000 dollars. We may strive to present many evolving futuristic scenarios pertaining to south Asia and try as much as possible to present a rosy picture, it is simply impossible to expect that the PCI of approximate 400 dollars as prevalent in most South Asian countries to jump to 13000 dollars. This is a very pertinent question confronting the people and governments of South Asia.

The development of human resources and capabilities is the fundamental requirement of all societies. South Asia has had its share of misfortunes pertaining to the lack of development of human capabilities. For example Norway is one country in which the scale of human resources development is simply unparalleled to the extent that it is the number one country in the entire universe; in other words as far as human resources development is concerned Norway is even ahead of the G-8; which is an organization of most industrialized nations in the world. Pakistan lags behind all countries in this department in South Asia. It stands at 142 in the list of nations pertaining to human resources development. Within Pakistan, as is common all progress in various spheres of life is based on fraudulent practices and inequality, the same goes for development of human resources capabilities where the standard for measuring improvement is not based on justice and equality. Parts of the country have benefited from the undue largesse of policy makers and parts of the country have been deliberately left impoverished and neglected. In light of the dismal situation as prevailing in the country we are thus unable to achieve the desired economic results and thus lag behind other countries of the world. As far as human resources development is concerned Nepal stands at 140 in the world, Bangladesh is at 138 and India is placed at 127. Sri Lanka is far ahead of the pack and its economic related situation is in a much more progressive mode as compared to the other countries of the region. Sri Lanka stands at 96 in the human resources development index. Now listen to this, in this department Sierra Leone in Africa is at the lowest rung of the index and is placed at 177.

Now lets take a look at the level of literacy in the region. As per the 2001-2002 governmental reports, the maximum level of literacy in the region is in Sri Lanka and the lowest level in Bangladesh. In light of a census study conducted three years back, the level of literacy in Bangladesh is 53.9 percent for men and 31.8 for women, while on the other hand in Sri Lanka the level of literacy is 94.8 for men and 90 percent for women. In Pakistan the literacy levels stands at 54.8 percent for men and for the women at 32 percent.

Sundeep Waslekar has presented a 60-point charter for South Asia for the next twenty years. The first point of this charter is very categorical in stating that the people of South Asia should demand democratic rulers for their countries. They should reject all forms of government which do not conform to democratic principles, irrespective of them being military dictatorship, monarchy, theocracy or autocracy. How can we read the next 59 points as vividly elucidated by Sundeep Waslekar and seek to implement them when we are still stuck at the very first point of this charter? Democracy is still a dream in Pakistan and our unwavering resolve in attaining democracy is still awaiting fulfillment. We are still very far from our destination of achieving democracy and like a forlorn traveler on the path, we are still wallowing in schizophrenic hallucinations of our deep-rooted aspirations.