MEDIA
THE primary objective of Pakistan€™s interest in Kashmir is to secure its water resources, according to a study made by the Strategic Foresight Group. €œA conflict over land between the people of Kashmir and the Government of India will soon become a thing of the past. On the other hand, a water war between Kashmir and Pakistan is inevitable in the future€, the Strategic Foresight has said in a report €œThe Final Settlement€™: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations.€
The report of the Mumbai-based body says that if India and Pakistan take a political decision to restructure their relations, they will have to ensure that water serves as a flow to bring them together, rather than taking them further on the course of conflict. It says that water situation in Pakistan is worse. The flow of river water is dropping precipitately at nearly seven per cent a year.
Pakistan€™s per capita water availability has declined from 5600 cubic metres at the time of independence to 1200 cubic metres in 2005. It is expected to reach a threshold level of 1000 cubic metres before year 2010 or perhaps even 2007. About 50 per cent of it is expected to be lost by 2010 making it difficult to support cotton sowing and wheat maturing.
While all provinces of Pakistan are suffering from water shortages, there is a tendency to force Sindh to bear a disproportionately higher share of burden than Punjab. The army top brass, including General Pervez Musharraf who own lands in Punjab, is keen on ensuring water supply to Punjab at the cost of Sindh. The division of water upstream has resulted in the decline of water downstream. As a result, the discharge of water into the sea is going down and the intrusion of seawater into the mainland is going up.
Sea intrusion has destroyed 1.5 million acres of farmland, resulting in the evacuation of three commercial towns, extinction of certain species of fish, and the loss of revenue to large numbers of farmers and fishermen. About 75 per cent of Sindh€™s groundwater resources are brackish. Salinity and water logging affect about 88 per cent of agricultural land.
Moreover, during 2000-2005, Sindh€™s share in irrigation water was cut by 25-40 per cent. As a result of water shortage, industries are shifting from Sindh to Punjab and the NWFP. Sindh€™s position as an industrial centre is in peril. The people of Sindh fear that the plans to construct the Kalabagh dam and Thal Canal will further aggravate their problems. Sindh has launched massive agitation against Kalabagh and Thal, threatening secession. In 2004, demonstrations were held in the province almost daily, where speaker after speaker compared the present situation in Sindh to the one in East Pakistan in 1971.
That is why, Pakistan needs fresh sources of water in areas where dams can be constructed. As a result, Pakistan has been proposing that it should be given parts of the Kashmir valley and Jammu, so that it can have physical control on the Chenab basin. The construction of Mangla Dam has led to resentment in the Mirpur area of Pakistan occupied Kashmir but it has revolutionised agriculture in Punjab at the cost of Kashmir€™s deprivation. It irrigates the canals in Punjab and also generates electricity.
General Musharraf who as a Brigadier presented a paper during one-year course at London€™s Royal College of Defence Studies in 1990 foresaw a looming water war. In his paper, Gen Musharraf said the distribution of Indus rivers contained the €œgerms of a future conflict€ meaning that commando-turned- politician had made water from Kashmir as a condition for peace with India.
In this connection, Pakistan Army establishment at a meeting of Corps Commanders held on January 5, 2005 , in Islamabad has authorised the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to €œworkout a strategy with extremist groups to launch fresh attacks on a limited basis in the Indian territory .€ But it should be noted that in the next five to 10 years, the greatest risk to the development of Pakistan as well as peace in South Asia , is that the jehadi forces may succeed in turning Pakistan 's military into a strategic tool, according to the report.
