New Delhi, March 31: Kashmir may well disappear off the radar between India and Pakistan in the very near future if dry conditions persevere into the near future and be replaced by an even more urgent and explosive matter than disputed land according to The Guardian.

Mumbai-based Strategic Foresight Group in its report titled ‘The Final Settlement' argues that water scarcity in the northern parts of both countries will bring to the front a crisis of epic proportions unless both come to a mutually amicable solution over sharing water in rivers that run through both countries. The affected areas virtually feed the entire populations of both countries.

Simmering tension between them in the 1960s was defused by the World Bank when it acted as the intermediary in sharing out the waters of six rivers of the Indus basin that flow through Kashmir out of Tibet. While the waters of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej went to India. Indus, Jhelum and Chenab went to Pakistan.

That the matter is of utmost gravity is evidenced by the fact that even the Indian states of Punjab and Haryana are fighting tooth and nail to get the maximum advantage in sharing water. Punjab in fact unilaterally annulled all domestic water treaties in 2004 and has consistently refused to build canals to share resources. Sindh and Pakistan Punjab are similarly engaged in one-upmanship.

It won't take much scarcity for farmers and local populations for India and Pakistan to (given their long history of enmity) upgrade their constant warring into a nuclear stand-off.

With water resources drying up at a fast rate of 7 per cent per year in Pakistan, things are expected to come to a head by 2010 when food grain and cotton crops are expected to be hit, according to The Guardian .

The solution for Pakistan is for dams to be built, but the problem is that can be done only on the Indian side of the border in Kashmir where the head waters for the Chenab river lie.

However, a third party is part of the equation too. For the local population of Indian Kashmir the Indus Water Treaty has been a bone of contention. The treaty lets just 10 per cent of the hydroelectric potential to be harnessed locally and a mere 40 per cent of the cultivable land to be irrigated. Watching all the water go to either Pakistan or other states in India has generated lots of stress and the situation is getting worse by the day. In the backdrop of terrorist activity running the Kashmiri economy into the ground, water acquires added significance as it becomes the only other major source of livelihood and providing sustenance.

Even if an understanding is arrived at between India and Pakistan to equitably share the waters again, how exactly both countries will satisfy the needs of the locals is still a mystery.

Also, how China (controls Tibet) reacts to water wars being fought between its Pakistan (its ally) and India (China's rival)is anyone's guess.

Considering that the border dispute costs hundreds of lives every year, a water crisis will definitely transform the low-level conflict into a war situation. And, this time, the local people and starving millions in other parts of the country too will be up in arms, adding greater fuel to the fire. That it will threaten a nuclear holocaust is a foregone conclusion.

Whether the crisis will bring together politicians, and people across the border will depend on how soon all concerned parties can get together to iron out a mutually acceptable understanding.