MEDIA
[India News] New Delhi, Pakistan's obsession with Kashmir is not driven by territorial ambitions or love for the Kashmiris but rather a desire to control the rivers in Jammu and Kashmir, says a report.
"Pakistan's primary interest in Kashmir (is) to secure its water resources in order to satisfy Punjab and contain Sindh (and this) is in confrontation with the interests of the people of Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC)," says the report.
The report - "The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations" - was prepared by the International Centre for Peace Initiatives, a Mumbai-based independent think tank.
"Pakistan is not interested in Kashmir alone; Pakistan wants Kashmir plus those districts of Jammu that form the catchment area of the Chenab (river)", it says. "A water war between Kashmir and Pakistan is inevitable in the future."
It says physical control over the Chenab valley would provide Pakistan an opportunity to build dams upstream and regulate river flows to Punjab and Sindh.
It notes that India has identified nine sites on the Chenab to build hydroelectric dams, some of which could be bigger or comparable to the largest dams in Pakistan - Tarbela and Mangla.
Under the bilateral Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, India can only build run-of-the-river hydroelectric stations. "If Pakistan can get control of the area, it would have no such restrictions," the report says.
"It would also provide strategic depth for the Mangla dam and the important Pothohar region in Punjab from where more than half of the army personnel are recruited.
"However, India would lose the strategically vital Akhnoor area in Jammu and also access to Ladakh," it said.
The report said if India and Pakistan were to take a political decision to restructure their relations, they would have to ensure that water served to bring them together rather than push them towards conflict.
"Since 1999, every proposal made by Pakistan through Track II diplomacy, either directly or indirectly, refers to water as a core issue," the report said.
"The statements made by Pakistan's military officials, Kashmiri leaders and newspaper editorials describe Jammu and Kashmir as a supplier of crucial rivers, and project bloodshed there as the sacrifice made by Kashmiri youth to ensure Pakistan's water security."
It quoted Hizbul Mujahideen leader Salahuddin as having said: "Kashmir is the source from where all of Pakistan's water resources originate. If Pakistan loses its battle against India, it will become a desert."
As a "bright and ambitious" brigadier undergoing a course at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London, President Pervez Musharraf himself had in a dissertation said the issue of distribution of Indus river waters between India and Pakistan had the "germs of future conflict".
According to the report, Pakistan's per capita water availability has declined from 5,600 cubic metres at the time of its independence in 1947 to 1,200 cubic meters in 2005. This is expected to reach the "threshold level" of 1,000 cubic metres before 2010.
"While all provinces are suffering from water shortages, there is a tendency to force Sindh to bear a disproportionately higher share of burden than Punjab. The army leadership is keen on ensuring water supply to Punjab at the cost of Sindh," it said, noting that senior officers, including Musharaf, who is also army chief, have purchased land in Punjab.
The report said the construction of Mangla dam had led to resentment on both sides of the LoC - in Mirpur area of Pakistan-administered Kashmir as it has submerged large areas in the region and in the Kashmir Valley on the Indian side because the Indus Waters Treaty undermines the potential to develop hydroelectricity and irrigation projects.
"There is a direct conflict between Pakistan and the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan wants the Kashmir Valley and parts of Jammu to be able to build dams to divert waters to Punjab's benefit at the cost of the Kashmiris.
"On the other hand, Jammu and Kashmir needs to come out of the Indus Waters Treaty to improve its own irrigation, hydroelectricity and employment prospects.
"Pakistan is not interested in the full accession of Kashmir if it involves giving equal rights to Kashmir along with other provinces. Pakistan's interest is in having Kashmir as a semi-autonomous state, which cannot demand equal rights with other provinces, but which allows the federal government to exercise political control over its resources," the report said.
Indo-Asian News Service
