Soon after the promulgation of Martial Law in Pakistan in October 1958, Gen.Ayub Khan turned his attention to the rivers of Jammu and Kashmir which, he said, were indispensable for the economic survival of his country. He made a failed attempt in 1965 to capture this State.

After Ayub, Gen.Pervez Musharraf is the second military ruler for whom Kashmir is the core issue not because of any ideology but because of Pakistan�€™s water needs. While for Ayub Kashmir was indispensable for Pakistan�€™s economic survival, for Gen.Musharraf it is indispensable for both the country�€™s economic survival and for its national integrity. He has discarded Pakistan�€™s five decade-old stand on the United Nations resolutions on Kashmir and does not talk of accession as his country�€™s ideology. Both Ayub and Gen.Musharraf made water from Kashmir as a condition for peace with India. Like Ayub, Gen.Musharraf made an unsuccessful attempt to grab Kashmir in May 1999 by invading Kargil.

As a Brigadier at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London in 1990, he had presented a paper with an unusually long title: �€œThe Arms Race in the Indo-Pakistan Subcontinent. Conflicts with the Pressing Requirements of Socio-economic Development. What are its Causes and Implications? Is there a Remedy?�€ The gist of this paper is a suggestion that the rivers of Kashmir hold the key to the future conflict between India and Pakistan. This month International Centre for Peace Initiatives published a book by name �€œThe Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations�€. The book suggests that the search for a final settlement between the two countries must be predicted on the analysis of the three essential elements in the bilateral relationship - Fire (use of terrorism as state policy), Water (rivers of Kashmir) and Land (an agreed future status of Kashmir).

As the summer has arrived and annual water agitations have started in Sindh, the part of this book dealing with water is very timely. Shortage of water and its gross mismanagement in Pakistan have the potential of sabotaging the new-found bonhomie between the peoples of that country and India. The facts about the water situation in Pakistan, as mentioned in this book, are alarming. Still more alarming for the national integration of Pakistan is the fact that Generals want their land in Punjab to get uninterrupted water supply at the cost of Sindh by upstream division of water from Indus. During summer, Indus is almost dry on entering Sindh. As a result, there is massive sea intrusion destroying farm lands. On top of it, the Government plans to build the Kalabagh dam and Thal canal which, the Sindhis say, will further reduce the water flow to their province. The Kalabagh dam is opposed both by Sindhis and Pushtuns of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Sindhis have threatened to start a cessationist movement if the Government goes ahead with the construction of this dam. Baluchistan, too, opposes this dam. This province faces water draught in summer and devastating floods during monsoons. The Government's concern for this poor province was exposed this January when five small dams of inferior quality were washed away in rain and snow destroying human lives and property. The Thal canal is opposed because it is designed to supply additional water to areas in Punjab where Generals have their farms. Again at the cost of Sindh.

In order to avoid a conflict with Sindh, according to the book, Pakistan may feel it needs physical control over the Chenab catchment region in Jammu and Kashmir. �€œIt needs sites to build dams, to store, divert and regulate water flows,�€ it says. Then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had opened a two-track channel with the Government of India soon after Gen.Musharraf became the Army Chief. Apparently this new diplomacy was started at Gen.Musharraf's instance. During this time a suggestion was floated that the Chenab river should become the border between the two countries. Pakistan wanted water security beyond the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. Gen.Musharraf's Dixon plan-like proposals in October last year suggested division of Jammu into sub-regions roughly along the Chenab river.

To meet Punjab's water needs, Pakistan has been exploiting Kashmir in two ways. One, the Mangla dam constructed on Jhelum in occupied Kashmir has revolutionised Punjab's agriculture at the cost of PoK. The construction of this dam in 1960 had rendered lakhs of Mirpuris homeless. They hardly got any compensation. PoK does not receive royalty for the power it supplies to Pakistan. Now to meet Punjab's increased water needs, Pakistan has decided to raise the height of the Mangla dam by 30 feet. This will make more than 40,000 people homeless in Mirpur. Hence bitter protests.

Pakistan is also toying with the idea of constructing a dam in Skardu in the Northern Areas. If this dam is constructed, Baltistan will ultimately disappear. Here too, there are protests.

Two, Pakistan has been using Kashmiri youths to secure its water interests. Syed Salahuddin, chairman of the Pok-based United Jehad Council has often said the Kashmiri youths are actually fighting for Pakistan to gain control over Kashmir's rivers. PoK President Mohammad Anwar Khan told Urdu newspapers in October 2002, �€œKashmiris are fighting for the security, strength and prosperity of Pakistan ...Even peace between Punjab and Sindh depends on water, and, therefore, on Kashmir�€. PoK Prime Minister Sikandar Hayat told a seminar on March 6, 2003 �€œThe freedom fighters of Kashmir are in reality fighting for Pakistan's water security and have prevented India from constructing a dam on the Wular Barrage.�€

It is certain that Kashmiri youths will not keep on shedding their blood for Pakistan's water needs. On the contrary, there can be confrontations between Pakistan and Kashmris over water.

(The writer is Director, Institute for Media Studies & Information Technology, YMCA, New Delhi & formerly Editor, UNI. Ideas expressed are author's own)