MUMBAI: In 1990 a Pakistani brigadier at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London was asked to write a thesis as part of his one-year training programme, which he submitted with a rather lengthy title: "The arms race in the Indo-Pak economic development. What are its causes and implications? Is there a remedy?"

The paper provided a new analytical framework to define the security paradigm in South Asia. The presentation was clear in its diagnosis of the South Asian security, situation.

The brigadier argued there were three core issues in the region: One was the divide between Hindu and Muslim mindset. Second was the issue of Jammu and Kashmir and the third issue was about the distribution of Indus River between India and Pakistan. The writer concluded "this issue (Indus waters) has the germs of future conflict."

The author is Pakistan’s present Chief of Army Staff and President Pervez Musharraf, whose views are recollected in "the final settlement," the latest report from the Mumbai based International Centre for Peace Initiatives of the Strategic Foresight Group made available to The News.

The public debate has always focused on issues of terrorism, human rights and the legality of accession. It has never linked the conflict to the rivers of Jammu and Kashmir. The brigadier was suggesting that the rivers hold the key t the future conflict.

The report adds that the brigadier returned to Pakistan to briskly climb the ladder of the army ranks and in 1998, he replaced General Jeghanigir Karamat as the COAS.

Interestingly, it is not only now that the president has gone public about Pakistan’s future water concerns. The report says that on April 1, 1999, Musharrraf summoned Prime Minister Nawaz Sahrif to the GHQ where he concluded that the only solution acceptable to Pakistan, to settle its conflicts with India was the "Chenab formula." The meeting lasted for 3 hours.