Pakistan's obsession with Kashmir has got nothing to do with the two-nation theory. At the heart of Pakistan's fixation is the spectre of acute water scarcity in the immediate future. That is one of the provocative findings of a new study on India-Pakistan relations

According to Sundeep Waslekar and his team at the International Centre for Peace Initiatives, Pakistan's per capita water availability has plummeted from 5,600 cubic metres in 1947 to 1,200 cubic metres in 2005. It is predicted that as early as 2007, Pakistan's water availability might touch the threshold level of 1,000 cubic metres. The worst affected areas are the Sindh and Punjab provinces.

Waslekar argues that Pakistan's primary strategic interest in Kashmir is regulating the flow of water from the catchment area of the Chenab river, which falls in J&K. At present, the Indus water treaty governs water sharing between India and Pakistan. While Islamabad has effective control of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, New Delhi controls Ravi, Sutlej and Beas

But due to increasing water scarcity in both the countries, the Indus treaty has come under strain.

The significance of water in the relations between Islamabad and Delhi was foreseen by Pervez Musharraf back in 1990, when he was taking part in a training programme at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London. Musharraf presented a paper on the arms race in South Asia where he concluded that the Indus waters contained the germs of future conflict.