MEDIA
ISLAMABAD: The future of provinces will have a bearing on geo-politics of the entire region. Any tension between NWFP and the rest of Pakistan will impact Afghanistan. Problems in Balochistan will affect Afghanistan and Iran. Friction between the Punjab and Sindh can cause massive refugee influx into India. Thus, the future of Pakistan’s provinces will subtly govern the future of extended South Asia.
In its latest report "Pakistan’s Provinces" the Strategic Foresight Group — a scenario planning think-tank — has looked into the provinces’ macroeconomic overview, inter-provincial comparisons and detailed study of the four provinces and speculations about their future.
The reason for coming up with this report, say the authors, is that for several years, Pakistani social scientists have not been able to undertake a serious study of internal strength and weaknesses of each of the provinces and the relationship between the provinces. This volume provides an opportunity to Pakistani scholars along with the country’s external observers to work together to look at the future of the provinces from inside and outside.
The International Centre for Peace Initiatives, which is a conflict resolution institution, has launched this report. Unlike some past publications, the report is to be commended for its excellent research and accuracy of statistics mostly based on Pakistani institutions.
Rather strange is that knowing that Pakistan is an Islamic state, it is rather insensitive when instead of using the heading of religious influence, it continuously under different headings, uses the heading of God.
While examining a macroeconomic overview of Pakistan, the report looks at the four drivers of the country, which are growth, governance, God and geo-politics.
Looking at growth, the report says that an elite economy, dominated by the army and a small group of landowners and business class is leading to the concentration of wealth in economic development constrains growth and also creates sense of alienation.
On governance the report says that a narrow polity with power shared by the military and the mullahs has created democratic deficit. The political space has been occupied by religious hardliners and provincial separatists, thus giving rise to fissiparous tendencies.
Commenting on God it says that a narrow economic growth pattern and political power base has rallied the masses in the provinces bordering Afghanistan around religious parties. The military-mullah alliance has also fostered jihadi culture, with the risk or pro-jihadi and anti-jihadi seeking separate identities.
Commenting on geo-politics the pattern of US involvement has perpetuated internal cleavages and increased pressure on the federal structure.
The report further states that Pakistan’s economic future is thus linked to the future of its political structure and territorial unity. A few years of good rains and foreign aid can provide temporary reprieve. But, if structural reforms, wide political space and dismantling of the jihadi culture were allowed then the country could progress further.
Commenting on inter-provincial comparisons, the report says that Punjab’s overwhelming domineering perception has led to the belief that the overarching Punjabi identity is undermining the linguistic and ethnic identities of other groups, thus creating deep resentments against Punjab and the federal government. Moreover, the military and bureaucracy coming from here act as a potent force.
Pakistan has had natural base for agriculture with diversification into secondary and tertiary sectors not receiving serious thrust. Punjab, owning to its conducive geographical conditions has been the fulcrum of Pakistan’s agriculture. Industry sector rests on agriculture and hence the continuing dependence.
Writing on Balochistan, the report says that the commissioning of the Gwadar port would bring Balochistan into international limelight, especially as a conduit to Central Asian Republics (CARs). The port is coming up through Chinese assistance. China has also invested in mineral projects in Balochistan, and the port would facilitate easy transportation. While on NWFP, the report says that a major foreign factor affecting the province would be the situation in Afghanistan. In fact it is an inter-dependent phenomenon. This is primarily due to the Pashtun communality running across the borders.
If Sindh continues to suffer economic deterioration and water shortage, internal turmoil is inevitable. This can lead to a refugee inflow into India most probable in post 2007 when water scarcity would reach an unbearable proportion.
Geo-politics of Punjab shows that its location is not of strategic significance to Pakistan, however, its proximity to India is a cause of concern. Any possible confrontation with India will affect Punjab.
Many in Pakistan would agree that the weakening of the two largest and powerful political parties, and exiling their leaders would give the religious parties and separatist groups chance to fill the vacuum .If mainstream parties could function without encumbrance, religious and separatist parties would be obviated.
