Recently, an Indian think-tank, International Centre for Peace Initiatives, released a report that is receiving wide coverage in newspapers. The report discusses the future of Pakistan in a very shameful manner. The government and our people should take notice of this. The report discloses that Pakistan may attack India in the next four years. As and when Pakistan weakens and reaches a point of disintegration, then Pakistan is likely to attack India. In the middle of this decade, Pakistan would be on the verge of a collapse. In such circumstances Pakistan would go for a full-fledged war with India, as in 1971. The report also expresses concern over the possible use of nuclear weapons by Pakistan in such a situation and calls for strong diplomatic initiatives as the only solution. The report also reveals that a collapsed Pakistan would strain Hindu-Muslim relations in India and weaken the overall communal fabric of India.

ICPI claims that this report was prepared after several interviews and discussions with individuals from a cross-section of Pakistani society. It is surprising that the Indian think-tank cannot see the various separatist struggles, revolts and political unrest within its own country. Seven lakh Indian forces have not been able to curb the freedom struggle in Kashmir, Assam and Nagaland. Indian conflicts are discussed by the world media, but yet the Indian think-tank is worried about Pakistan’s division. This is a matter of concern for Pakistan, as earlier also a report published by a US institution predicted that Pakistan would break-up by 2012, which was hyped by our enemies. Making the US report as the base, India, through its scholar forums using this report in their psychological war against Pakistan to spread a sense of dejection among the people of Pakistan.

Now the question arises as to how to combat this psychological warfare of the enemies, and how to stop the sense of disillusionment among the people of Pakistan. Before answering this, we need to first expose those hidden factors that are the basis for such talks against our country. We should put an end to the causes on the basis of which such assumptions are surfacing. We should not shut our eyes but face the situation and play our role as a responsible nation.

At present, political chaos and uncertainty exists in the country and under such circumstances any propaganda by our enemies can prove very effective. We have to save our country from such a situation. Why this situation got created needs no explanation. The present proposed constitutional amendments, Political Parties Order and electoral reforms, reflect no options, but that of clashes between the government and the major political and religious parties of the country. The steps taken so far by the government clearly indicate that Nawaz Sharief and Benazir Bhutto will not be allowed to contest the coming elections. It is also obvious that if the proposed amendments get implemented, the future Parliament would not be an independent and powerful institution. The future PM would remain a puppet and moreover, the PM, the cabinet and even the assembly could be dissolved easily. This has serious implications for the federation and relations between the federal government and the provinces as well as on inter-provincial relations. All powers are converged with the President. The world is watching how major political parties and their leaders are being marginalised and also how far this new system will work. This has created a lot of unrest.

According to some sections of society, Musharraf has created problems for himself by unduly increasing his responsibilities and which are ever growing. This can lead to major difficulties. Possibly he has realised this and may roll back a few amendments, but still this does not end his difficulties. On closely observing the manner in which things are proceeding, it is evident that all major decisions are being taken keeping in mind one single individual and not the entire country, when in fact past experiences and future targets should be kept in mind to take strong and practical steps which can strengthen our institutions and lead the country towards our final destination. In the past too such amendments were made keeping in mind only Zia and some short-term interests which gave nothing but political instability to the country. Temporary and ad hoc arrangements are being made occasionally, but nothing to stabilise the State. We need to take measures that can strengthen the country and develop civil societies that are responsible towards national security and integrity. Civil societies are formed only through the political process, but in view of the steps taken by the current government the continuation of the political process looks doubtful. Political instability will increase disappointments and unrest, giving opportunity to our enemies to carry out anti-Pakistan propaganda and make injurious remarks about Pakistan’s future. Civil society in Pakistan is weakening due to the lack of continuation of political process and political stability. Clashes between the government and political and religious parties will only deviate us from our path. The world is changing rapidly, and we also need to change at a similar pace. If our establishment continues with its policies of the 50’s and 60’s, it will create many more crises. We have to take our country ahead and for this everybody from students to teachers to ulemas, scholars, lawyers, doctors, engineers, scientists, farmers, women children have a role to play. For the country’s safety and integrity we need to involve people in the state affairs, and the only way to do so is through the political process. We have to safeguard ourselves from political chaos, uncertainty and clashes. Our priority should be the restoration and continuation of the political process and political stability. Through our unity and integrity we should give a fitting reply to our enemies who say that Pakistan will fail by the end of the decade.