General Pervez Musharraf�€™s removal will make no difference to Pakistan�€™s economic and foreign policies. He may survive for another 3-4 years before being removed in another coup. The most likely reason for his removal will be unmanageable social and economic ills in Pakistan.

These are some of the predictions in The Future of Pakistan, a report by the Mumbai based International Centre for Peace Initiatives.

The report says Pakistan is caught in a vicious cycle of economic decline that promotes jehadis and weakens democratic institutions. This allows the military to rule. But the generals are too wary of social unrest to carry out necessary economic reforms.

If its economy continues to regress, says the report, half of the population will fall into poverty by 2010, triple the 1987 level. Pakistan already has 15-20 million young men. With few jobs or schools, 10 per cent of them go to madrassas. Net result: one million strong pool of jehadis of whom 200,000 are already under arms.

The report calculates it would have taken 4-5 years for the �€œeconomy to hit rock bottom and generate massive public protests against the army�€. The Afghan war has given Pakistan a reprieve of only two years.

If Pakistan decided to take the path of a developmental state, giving up on jehad and forcussing on the economy, the report says that it could restore growth to 6 per cent by the decade�€™s end. To do this, Musharraf will only have to fulfil his promises to the international community for six months to a year.

So far, Pakistan seems wedded to a policy of conflict.