New Delhi, July 7. At a time with policy makers focus on cross-border terrorism and infiltration as key issues leading to a plausible India-Pakistan conflict, there is a section of security analysts who believe that it is a dangerous combination of domestic factors threatening the existence of the Pakistan State which could in due course trigger a war between the two countries.

In their recent study on "The Future of Pakistan", analysts of Strategic Foresight Group at the International Centre for Peace Initiatives have observed that the Pakistan State is in the danger of imploding as it tries to balance disparate social forces in an effort to survive.

The growing influence of extremist elements, rising unemployment triggered by an economic slide and a looming clash of interests over water resources between provinces in a predominantly agrarian society, these analysts say, provides a perfect setting for an economy of violence to flourish under the tutelage of "jehadi" groups.

The principal co-ordinator of the study, Sundeep Waslekar, who is currently in the Capital says that there are already about 2 lakh persons working actively with the jehadi groups, about 2 million others waiting in the wings while they receive training in madrassas and about 20 million unemploymed youth who are potential recruits for these groups.

In addition, the study observes that the Pakistan Army too has been penetrated by jehadi elements with a significant section now opposing their President, Pervez Musharraf’s policy of appeasing the West. "This section dominates largely the second tier of the Army and has been a consistent source of pressure against adopting Western policies", says Mr Waslekar. This flourishing economy of violence, according to the study, is further aided by the simultaneous slide in Pakistan’s economic performance. Form about a rate of 5 per cent in the 1990s, the GDP growth rate of Pakistan fell to 2.6 per cent last year.

"Moreover we have reports that the rich among Pakistan have been leaving their country in significant numbers and if the situation worsens one can surely forecast flight of capital from the country. I fail to understand how General Musharraf is going to realise the goals of his perspective plan which talks of bringing in 75 per cent private investment", adds Mr Waslekar.

Further, the study highlights the crisis of water, which threatens to go beyond just an interprovincial issue. Apparently, Punjab has been at an average releasing 30 per cent less water to Sindh than it is supposed to as per the water sharing agreement. Mr Waslekar says this has a cascading effect on other provinces like Baluchistan and when policy makers in Pakistan analyse the problem they end up blaming the Indus River Water Treaty, thus India.

With land reforms not properly implemented in Pakistan, these analysts are of the view that the landed elite would continue to hold sway in electoral politics after October further to destabilising the fractured policy of the country. At present, Mr Waslekar says, Pakistan’s manufacturing sector is badly hit and their hopes are pinned on the trickle down from the money being pledged to Afghanistan’s reconstruction.

"They hope their steel, cement and other industries would survive because of this. As of now, nothing of that sort is happening. Even the money which comes from international financial institutions goes on debt servicing." In all, the team of analysts take the line that the Pakistan State faces the threat of collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions and for its own survival could enter into a military conflict with India. As Mr Waslekar sums it up: "The immediate issue could be anything, but the threshold could be crossed in the next three years."