Despite the easing of tension on the Indo-Pak border, war clouds would continue to hover over South Asia for long, with a think-tank projecting that Pakistan may launch a full-scale war in the next four years when it could be on the verge of collapse and disintegration.

"Pakistan�€™s collapse seems quite likely in the middle of the decade. It can lead to an all-out war with India as it had launched in 1971 just when it was about to be dismembered on account of the agitation in east Pakistan," the Mumbai-based private think-tank 'International Centre for Peace Initiatives (ICPI) said in a report.

"When nothing is at stake, and the institutions are likely to disintegrate, Pakistan may consider a war around 2005-06," it said.

Apart from an appropriate defense strategy, it said a diplomatic strategy will be required to reduce Pakistan�€™s possibility of using nuclear weapons to the minimum level.

It also warned that "a collapsing Pakistan has implications for Hindu-Muslim relations in India...There are indications that ISI has directed its attention to India�€™s communal fabric as a part of the future strategy," the report said, adding, "Even without a pro-active ISI role, Pakistan�€™s collapse can have implications for communal peace in India".

Besides official documents and medical reports from Pakistan and international institutions, the 112-page report. The Future of Pakistan �€” is based on interviews of "several hundred people" ranging from villagers in north west frontier province of Pakistan to business leaders in Karachi and decision-makers in Islamabad, the ICPI claimed, adding that no Indian publication has been used in the report.

As the war with Pakistan "seems inevitable, it will be essential to have the population in the border areas on the Indian side. This particularly applies to Jammu and Kashmir", the report said, maintaining that it was "essential to win hearts of the Kashmiri people by launching a package of initiatives for resolution, reconciliation and reconstruction in the state."

The ICPI report also warned of a massive inflow of refugees in the border areas "with a potential to upset the demographic balance in sensitive cities like Ahmedabad and Mumbai" and said their inflow could also provide a cover for import of terrorists.

Analysing the reasons for its projections, it said President Pervez Musharraf�€™s "double game" of "systematic cultivating of extremists" and joining the fight against terrorism was "not tenable in the long run even though it has helped him to survive in power for almost three years".

Due to the sharpening of differences within the army and growing influence of 'jehadi' forces, Pakistan was heading towards "institutional and economic crisis".

At the social level, armed militants are expected to increase "exponentially from their present strength of 200,000 compared to the army�€™s strength of 600,000."

In addition, Pakistan was also heading towards a crisis of provincial unity due to tensions between Punjab and Sindh over water, it said, adding that in the past three years, the flow of water from Punjab to Sindh has been curtailed by 30 per cent per year on an average. PTI