MUMBAI: The chances of an Indo-Pak war at present are nil, but the two neighbours may wage an all-out war with each other in 2005, according to a report prepared by Mumbai based International Centre for Peace Initiatives (ICPI), a non-governmental organisation involved in resolving conflicts in South Asia for almost a decade.

The report, �€˜Future on Pakistan�€™, claims that the war will be started by the Pakistani Army in 2005, not over the contentious Kashmir issue, but for the consolidation of its own nationhood. Pakistan will face a crisis of survival in the middle of this decade, the report claims. "When not much will be at stake to preserve in Pakistan, they will start the war, possibly a nuclear one. Pakistan launched its last war in 1971 when it was about to be dismembered on account of an agitation in East Pakistan," it notes.

The report gives General Musharraf another six months to four years as the President of Pakistan. "If he continues to rule by the consensus of the Corps Commanders, he will remain in power. But if resentment towards his support for the U.S. grows in the middle ranks of the army, he may be ousted by early 2003," it claims.

The report also deals with several important issues, including Pakistan�€™s socio-economic development, jihadi culture, the army, interprovincial relations and foreign relations, especially with India.

But given the strained relations between the two neighbours, the study�€™s motive and objectivity is likely to be questioned. However, ICPI director Sundeep Waslekar says he conducted a study on Pakistan�€™s future only because there were several studies on its relations with India but very few on its internal situation. "Since Pakistan�€™s future is bound to have a direct impact on India, it became imperative to fill this void."

To maintain objectivity, the report has been entirely based on interviews with 800 Pakistanis �€” villagers, businessmen, army officers, politicians, religious leaders �€” conducted over a span of one year, he adds.

The report says that Pakistan will face an institutional crisis in the next four years due to sharpening differences within the army and the growing influence of the jihadi forces on the Pakistan state. "It is also heading towards economic crisis due to stagnant growth and inability to attract investments or to prevent the flight of capital."

There is tension between Punjab and Sindh over water, the report says. "In the last three years, the flow of water from Punjab to Sindh has been curtailed by 30 per cent per year on an average. If this trend continues, tensions between the two provinces will mount".

It claims that at the social level, armed militants are expected to increase exponentially from their present strength of two lakh to the army�€™s strength of six lakh. An ominous sign for General Musharraf is the sudden emergence of a new anti-American group called National Movement for the Restoration of Pakistani Sovereignty in February 2002. This group has several former ISI heads as members, including General Mahmood Ahmed who was sacked last October.