A report on global terrorism trends by Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, and Centre for the Resolution of Intractable Conflicts at Oxford University was launched in Brussels today by Friedrich Naumann Stiftung and European Policy Centre at a packed house.

The report "Humanity at Risk - Global Terror Threat Indicant" was strongly recommended to the world by panellists, Lord Alderdice (Oxford University), Catherine De Bolle (Europol Chief), Mustafa Ceric (Grand Mufti Emeritus of Bosnia), Suraya Dalil (Afghanistan’s Ambassador to the United Nations), and Ben Pugsley (EU Counter Terrorism Office). To the credit of Amanda Paul of EPC and Sebastian Vagt of FNS, the meeting convened was immensely successful.

Speaking on the occasion, Lord Alderdice said that the nature of terrorism had changed over the last 20 years. Instead of Cold War-inspired terrorist groups earlier, now terrorist groups inspired by the jihadi ideology dominated the world map of terror. Ambassador Suraya Dalil explained that geopolitics and actions of neighbouring countries were important factors behind the growth of terrorism affecting Afghanistan. She said that her country had to pay a huge humanitarian cost.

Ben Pugsley of the EU Counter Terrorism office said that the EU was focussed on its immediate threat for valid reasons. However it was necessary for the EU to recognise dangers stemming from Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was also necessary to be watchful for the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and to take a longer term perspective. Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director of Europol, also said that while Europe was focussed on its immediate threat it was necessary to look beyond as terrorism has become a borderless phenomenon. She explained the initiatives by security agencies in Europe to coordinate their policies and actions. She advocated the exchange of information at the international level with a view to prevent future threats from terrorism. She emphasised the risk of cyber terrorism and said, "Our response to terrorism is still structured for 20th century problems; we need to modernise it for the 21st century."

Mustafa Ceric, Grand Mufti Emeritus of Bosnia explained the dynamics in the Muslim world leading to the use of religion for justifying terrorism. He said that the international community had failed in Bosnia by allowing the siege of Sarajevo to go on for 3 years. Amanda Paul of the European Policy Centre moderated the discussion. Sebastian Vagt of FNF Europe welcomed the guests.

The full report of Humanity at Risk is available here