Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures:  Priorities for Convergence

An initiative of Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and Strategic Foresight Group (SFG)

After considering a wide range of sources mentioned below (*), including GCSP-SFG-Normandy roundtables, diplomatic consultations, working papers submitted to NPT Review Conference and research output of think tanks, the following risk reduction measures have been identified for driving convergence in future. We are particularly grateful to 24 experts from the P5 countries who examined previous versions of this document and provided valuable advice and suggestions, which have shaped the present document.

This document is particularly addressed to the governments and strategic communities of the P5 countries: China, France, Russia, UK, and USA.

The measures identified below are proposed as priorities for convergence to be considered by policy makers. It is by no means assumed that they will easily attract political or even expert acceptance. However, it is necessary to place these ideas on the radar of the policy makers to mitigate existential risks to humanity.

1. Dialogue at official, military, as well as expert level on a sustained basis on nuclear risk reduction measures

2. Building public awareness on catastrophic consequences of the risk of use of nuclear weapons, including global health and environmental implications of a limited nuclear conflict

3. Reliable, safe, and active communication channels including hotlines and crisis response mechanisms.

4. Declaratory measures committing to reduce nuclear risk.

5. Agreement on common P5 guidelines for extending the decision time required to launch delivery systems carrying nuclear weapons.

6. Dialogue between P5 member states on nuclear risk reduction, including at technical level on risks associated with AI - NC3 interface.

7. Inter-governmental technical working group, with members from military, diplomatic and technical background, on new technologies and reducing risks of accidental war and destabilizing implications of hypersonic missiles, high-specification automated naval detection and tracking networked systems.

8. Inter-governmental working group on space militarization, including use of commercial satellites for military purposes.

9. A multilateral agreement on the use of AI in NC3 to be managed by human in the loop.

10. A multilateral agreement on preventing data poisoning in early warning systems of NC3 and preventing cyber-attacks on NC3 in general.

The proposed steps will never be a substitute for the nuclear disarmament and arms control regime but would greatly benefit from preserving the same. In the long run, for humanity to be safe from nuclear weapons, it is essential to pursue the goal of elimination of nuclear weapons as specified in Article VI of NPT and for states with nuclear weapons to take practical steps toward that goal.

(*) Sources:

- P5 working paper submitted to NPT Review Conference

- Stockholm Initiative Strategic Risk Reduction Measures paper submitted to NPT Review Conference

- UN SG High Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism Report

- Joint Pledge of P5 Governments on avoiding nuclear war, 3 January 2022

- Roundtable in Caen, September 2022

- Roundtable in Geneva, March 2023

- Consultations with P5 Ambassadors 2022, 2023

- Research papers and statements issued by think tanks, particularly NTI, IST, ELN, BASIC

SFG and GCSP are grateful to the Future of Life Institute and the Silicon Valley Community Foundation for their generous support to P5 Initiative on Global Security and Catastrophic Risks.