The ripple effect of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution is far from over; Syria is the latest country in the Middle East to face mounting public unrest. The impact of the Tunisian revolution is not restricted to the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region alone; several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have also experienced anti-government protests. In Ivory Coast and Swaziland, protests have escalated into violent clashes between the government and protestors. While it is hard to predict the next revolution, countries in sub-Saharan Africa may not be able to pull of a North Africa-style revolution, despite its close proximity to the epicentre of the turmoil. Influenced by the political developments in North Africa, three possible scenarios may emerge in sub-Saharan Africa in the near future.  

Wave of Reforms

Unlike North Africa, countries in southern Africa such as Botswana, Ghana, Namibia and South Africa have a well-established democratic political system. Ghana has been a parliamentary democracy since 1957. According to Transparency International, Botswana is one of the least corrupt countries in the world. In the wake of protests across North Africa, Namibia and South Africa promptly announced reforms and measures to stimulate job creation. Namibian President Hifikepunye Pohamba promised 187,000 jobs by 2014, a year when national elections are due in the country. President Jacob Zuma of South Africa initiated several measures to spur job creation in the country. The government has created a ‘job fund’ of USD 1.2 billion and announced tax concessions worth USD 3 billion to promote investments which will aid in alleviating unemployment in the country. Therefore, any signs of public unrest will likely trigger a wave of reforms in the democratic and stable countries of southern Africa.  

Weak Protests

Opposition party-led demonstrations were held in Cameroon, Djibouti, Gabon and Zimbabwe. However, the arrest of the opposition leaders and the lack of support from the miniscule middle class slowed down the scale of anti-government agitation in these countries. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia where youth belonging to the middle class used social media sites to organize demonstrations and mobilize large number of people, most of the sub-Saharan countries have no sizeable urban middle class to support a revolution. Almost 60-65 percent of the total population in the region lives in rural areas. Further, North Africa is relatively more advanced compared to sub-Sahara Africa in terms of information and communication technology. In Egypt, internet played a significant role in the quick mobilization of protestors for anti-government rallies. In many sub-Saharan states, less than 5 percent of the population use internet and have access to satellite television network. Therefore, lack of access to communication technology will make it difficult to organize mass movements in the region.

Violent Unrest

The socio-economic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa are similar to MENA countries. Over 100 million people live in poverty, with a total population of about 800 million. Youth unemployment rate is extremely high, around 20-21 percent, in the region. Lack of social justice and democratic freedom could prompt people to revolt against authoritarian regimes. However, the final outcome will depend on decisions taken by top military hierarchy and the unity of the armed forces. In Ivory Coast, the government and its armed forces are trying to contain public outrage against the incumbent president, who has refused to relinquish power after electoral defeat. The military in countries like Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda and Zimbabwe has the potential to crush any challenge to the government. In such a scenario, a popular uprising could be marred by violence and bloodshed. The revolt in Tunisia and Egypt was peaceful because the military remained neutral in the standoff between protesters and the government. 

Unless political and economic reforms are carried out in sub-Saharan Africa, most of the authoritarian regimes would remain vulnerable to anti-government agitation, which may not be successful in toppling down repressive governments. Prolonged and inconclusive protests in the region will certainly explode into a major humanitarian crisis, exacerbating disease, famine and other social problems, as in Zimbabwe during recent years. In addition, instability in Africa could stir civil wars between different ethnic groups which will result in mass exodus of refugees, destabilizing the neighbouring countries. Around 90,000 civilians have fled Ivory Coast since the post-election crisis began. Further, a volatile political situation in sub-Saharan countries could also severely affect natural resource management. Mineral looting and smuggling will result in massive economic loss and stall economic development.

Considering these scenarios, the political future of sub-Saharan Africa depends on the role played by its own political leaders and the military. If the leaders are forced to chart the reform path as in Jordan, sub-Saharan Africa will be able to build peace, security and development.