Recently China unveiled a new government policy document outlining its Innovation Strategy for the next decade. Its ambitious plans include filing a mind boggling 2 million patents in 2015 (including utility and invention patents) and increasing its R & D investment to 2.5 % of GDP by 2020, bringing it to the same level of R & D spending by USA.  China�€™s goals of moving away from being a low cost manufacturing hub to becoming a leader in strategically important areas such as supercomputers, cloning, space science, biotechnology, and alternatively energy already has the world watching in trepidation.

In 2010, China overtook Japan to become the world�€™s second largest economy. The debate today hinges on the likelihood of it replacing USA as the world�€™s largest economy in the next 20 �€“ 30 years. At present, China already has the largest foreign currency reserves in the world and holds an astounding 1.6 trillion dollars worth of US government bonds and debt. China has started flexing its economic muscle to build influence in areas traditionally under American sway. Post the euro crisis, China assisted in the bail out of debt ridden countries such as Greece and Spain. It has invested heavily in economic and diplomatic ties with resource rich countries in Africa, Central Asia and South America. 

Economic clout is closely interlinked with geopolitics and is often used as a bargaining chip by countries to negotiate on key matters. China�€™s current monopoly on rare earth exports translated into a major advantage in its spat on territorial waters with Japan last year. China also uses the politically sensitive issue of its currency revaluation as a negotiating tool on other affairs, particularly with USA. In one such instance USA had to tone down its demands for currency revaluation before China agreed to extend support for the Iran sanctions at the UN Security Council in 2010.  

Hence given the status quo, China�€™s economic strengths, which are likely to gain further momentum in the future, make it tempting to label the country as the next superpower in waiting.  But is absolute economic strength really enough for a country to attain the status of a superpower? 

Traditionally the term �€œsuperpower�€ has been defined as the convergence of military, economic, political and cultural strengths and dominance. Although these four aspects are essentially interlinked, they are also inherently separate. A superpower is also described as a country with the ability to influence events on a world-wide scale.

In absolute terms, China may have made great strides in economic growth, but in relative terms, it still has a long way to go. China�€™s per capita income is approximately six to eight times less than Japan and USA. More than 150 million people live on less than US$ 1.25 a day in China.  The issues of urban �€“ rural income disparity and the probability of unrest and protests in the rural areas of China were identified among the top 20 critical issues for the period 2010-2020 in the SFG Report Global Security and Economy in 2008. The report mentioned the large number of disturbances recorded by the police in China in 2004 and 2006, as a result of the increasing gaps between urban rich and rural poor.  

However, the good news for China is that its leadership recognizes the widening inequalities as a key problem. In February 2011, Premier Wen Jiabao in his second annual chat with �€œnetizens�€ ahead of the session of the National People�€™s Congress scheduled in March promised that the government will promote fair income distribution and concentrate on quality of economic growth as opposed to only volumes in the next five year plan. The manner in which the government engages the rural population and reduces wealth disparities within the country is an important factor which could eventually shape China�€™s emergence as a true superpower.  

Conversely even if China succeeds in poverty alleviation and improves overall standards of living for wider segments of the population, the question of whether it should be referred to as a superpower would still persist. China has the potential to become an economic superpower, but in the arena of politics, diplomacy and governance, it has innate weaknesses which may prove to be more difficult to overcome.

China is reeling under increasing international criticism over its authoritarian handling of dissent, and limiting the right to free assembly, free press and free speech.  Although President Hu Jintao on a White House visit in January this year made a much publicized statement about more needing to be done in terms of human rights in the country, China�€™s reaction to the �€œArab Spring�€ proves that action always speaks louder than words.  China has continued to restrict media freedom, by filtering news about the Middle East protests, and blocking popular networking websites such as LinkedIn. 

Further its support for despots and oppressive regimes such as erstwhile Sudan, North Korea and Zimbabwe, amongst others raises questions on the larger role it could play in geopolitics in the future. While the argument may be made that USA has supported similar unpleasant rulers in the past and still continues to do so, US support is always cited as hypocrisy in contradiction to the core values it practices at home. On the other hand, Chinese support for tyrannical regimes may be an extension of the policies it practices at home, which could be more challenging in the global power game. Moreover the recent Arab revolution is quite ominous for China, not only for the dangers it presents within the country, but also as a warning that it may be repeating the same mistakes as USA and alienating the common people in pursuit of short term gains. Anti-Chinese resentment is rising among the people of Africa. There have been instances of anti- China protests in countries like Nigeria, Zambia and Lesotho. In 2006, protestors attacked Chinese people and businesses in Zambia�€™s capital, Lusaka. The political opposition in Zambia has also used the anti China sentiment among the people as an election campaign point. 

Hence though China�€™s importance in an increasingly multi�€“polar world cannot be understated, it still has many challenges to overcome before it achieves the status of a great power. Factors including huge income inequalities within the country, likelihood of greater dissent and unrest among the population and growing unpopularity abroad could well shape the role it plays in the world in the coming decades.