China and Bangladesh have intensified their bilateral cooperation in areas such as trade, investment and infrastructure development, which has led to the signing of a 10-point joint communiqué in 2010. In addition, the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh road and rail link received fresh impetus last year with all three countries agreeing to sign an agreement to develop transit facilities. Moreover, Bangladesh has sought China’s assistance to develop and use the Chittagong port, as well as a deep sea port at Sonadia Island in Cox’s Bazaar in Bangladesh. The tri-nation cooperation in opening up transit facilities will boost trade in both Bangladesh and China. However, the Chinese-backed infrastructure development in Bangladesh, while a boon for economic prosperity in the country, could pose challenges for India in the coming decades. 

Over the years, China has consistently extended its economic, military and diplomatic assistance to Bangladesh and emerged as its largest trade partner recently. The road link connecting China and Bangladesh via Myanmar will reduce the distance between China’s Yunnan Province and Bangladesh’s Chittagong to 111 km, which will further boost economic activities between the two countries. In the long run, this could prove to be vital for Bangladesh as it will aid in addressing several socio-economic issues in the conflict-stricken south-west part of the country. 

Moreover, recent reports suggest that there is potential to extend the tri-nation road link to the Kunming highway in China, which it being built to connect the Yunnan Province to Bangkok in Thailand. The wider network of road links will provide an avenue for Bangladesh to connect to the rest of South East Asia in the future. China, on the other hand, will benefit from developing the Chittagong port and constructing a deep sea port at Sonadia Island in Bangladesh, giving it direct access to the Bay of Bengal. This will serve to reduce China’s dependence on the Malacca Straits.

While the primary aspect of the relationship between China and Bangladesh is economic, it is unlikely to remain so in the future, given China’s strategic interests in the South Asian region. In this context, the role of Bangladesh, as well as other smaller countries such as Nepal and Bhutan, which share their borders with north and eastern India could be crucial in shaping the regional order of South Asia. More importantly, China’s growing sphere of influence in its western region could pose security challenges for India, especially the sensitive north-east region. The next few years therefore, are crucial for India, as it must tread carefully while formulating its policy towards Bangladesh. 

Over the years, India and Bangladesh have signed several treaties and agreements with respect to trade and investment. However the cooperation between the two countries has been periodically slow and has sometimes even failed to produce the desired outcome, resulting in growing mistrust among Bangladeshis towards India’s policies; this mistrust has also been largely fueled by the Islamist forces in Bangladesh. This could be one of the main reasons why the two prominent parties i.e. Awami League, which is widely considered to be India-friendly, and the main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, are keen to pursue a long-term economic relationship with China.

Nevertheless, it is also true that Bangladesh cannot completely block India, and both countries will need to work towards resolving its existing issues, especially those related to water and border killings. In addition, India will need to consider providing transit facilities to Nepal and Bhutan to use the Chittagong and Mongla ports in Bangladesh, which will enhance development of the smaller countries surrounding India. Moreover, economic progress has the potential to positively impact the north-east region of India and contain the insurgencies that have plagued the region for decades.

It will be interesting to see how the cooperation between China and Bangladesh consolidates over the next few years. While India should be wary about China’s expanding influence with the neighboring countries, it should also act decisively on policy issues to ensure that the new cooperation forged between China and Bangladesh remains purely on economic terms.