Cities today make up a sizeable share of the Middle East. More than half of the population (300 million) in the Arab world lives in cities. In fact, after Latin America, the Middle East boasts the fastest rate of urbanization amongst the developing world. The future envisages an increase in this process of urbanization: In the next 10 years, MENA’s (Middle East and North Africa) urban population is set to grow by 25% while the rural population will grow by a mere 8.5%. Hence the Middle East of the future will be largely urban in nature.

Gulf countries in particular are leading the race to this metropolitan future. 91% of Kuwait’s population in 1990 lived in urban centers, Saudi Arabia increased its urban populace from 66% to 77% between 1980 and 1990 and the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain were positioned at more than 80% urbanization in the same 10 year period. GCC countries give us a glimpse into the urban centers of the future, ‘The New Middle East’ that encapsulates a veritable mix of cultures, languages, food and most importantly identities. And it is this potent mixture of rapid urbanization and rapid globalization that points toward potential socio-cultural challenges that will arise with the surging tide of urbanization. 

With urbanization comes change – both physical and psychological. Ofcourse rapid urbanization requires a structural metamorphosis. Efficient infrastructure, employment, housing, food and education measures have to be developed in order to cope with a massive population influx. But the process of urbanization doesn’t simply involve the development of physical infrastructure; it involves a change in behavior and attitude. The New Middle East will have to create an ‘invisible infrastructure’ that will enable them to deal with the social, cultural and psychological changes that come along with rapid urbanization. 

This transition to an urban mindset is something that most developing countries have to cope with as they move from rural-agrarian to urban-industrial societies and this transition in mindset is an important part of how a country defines and redefines its identity under changing circumstances. 

GCC countries hold the key to understanding and visualizing a more cosmopolitan Middle East. Most of these countries have rather small local populations and brisk urban development has led to an urgent need for intellectual and physical capital from abroad. The urban population in these countries is multi-ethnic and international, comprising of people not just from the broader Arab world but from Europe, Asia and the Pacific and this makes the task of identity building even harder. According to Human Rights Watch, expatriates account for 80% of the population in Qatar and the UAE, 40% in Bahrain and expatriates now make up 69% of Kuwait’s population. Saudi Arabia and Oman, considered at the lower end of this spectrum, still have substantial expatriate populations of 33% and 25% respectively. 

The overwhelming majority of foreigners in recent years have definitely raised traditional, religious and ethical concerns in GCC nations. So much so that in 2008, Bahrain’s labor minister asserted that the high number of expatriates was a bigger threat to the region than the fall out of an atomic bomb or an attack by Israel. The statement understandably raised eyebrows in the international community and although the measure of threat in the statement could be an exaggeration its importance should not be overlooked. 

The New Middle East will be highly cosmopolitan in nature and as a result, it will be expected to maintain a sense of tradition while simultaneously being inundated with the demands of a global population. 

We see hints of this balance between local and global in GCC nations today. Saudi Arabia has installed a process called ‘Saudization’ to encourage employment of Saudi nationals in the growing private sector. On one hand the Saudi administration is expected to ensure that economic progress is inextricably linked with national progress but on the other hand they must uphold a credible system of meritocracy and free and fair employment opportunities, accepted by the international business world. The UAE is facing similar challenges while trying to uphold Shariah law in criminal cases that involve expatriates. The recent case of two British nationals, charged with indecent public behavior in Dubai is one example of how there could be a clash between the reality of a cosmopolitan Middle East on one hand and the need to preserve traditional and religious aspects of the Middle East on the other. 

GCC countries will play a major role in the New Middle East. Conflict mediation efforts by Qatar, Saudi military prowess, Al Jazeera’s media influence in the Arab world, Dubai and Doha’s status as world tourism destinations, oil and gas resources in all GCC nations and most recently, the establishment of an international organization like IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), stand testament to the fact that these small oil rich nations will exert a substantial amount of influence in the region in the next 20-30 years. 

This New Middle East needs to account for the socio-cultural changes that come along with rapid urbanization and development. Currently we see signposts that portend a tense competition between urban development and an increasing foreign population one side, and preserving tradition or local character on the other side. Striking a balance between these two factors will be a pertinent challenge in the formulation of a New Middle East identity.