US-Iran rapprochement foreseen in our 2008 report �€œEmerging Issues: Global Security and Economy�€.

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In Strategic Foresight Group�€™s 2008 report �€œEmerging Issues: Global Security and Economy�€ we had looked at the possibility of a scenario where in the absence of military confrontation between US and Iran by 2009, a change of presidency in the US and internal changes in Iran could lead to a de-escalation of tension, gradual rapprochement, and evolution of a strategic partnership between the two countries.

The thawing of US-Iran relations in recent times goes to show that our foresight was correct. In 2013, Iran�€™s new President Hassan Rouhani and US President Barack Obama had a phone conversation which was the first such conversation to take place between the two heads of states in 30 years. Since then, both sides have made a sustained effort to solve the issues arising from Iran�€™s nuclear program.

We envisioned our scenario on the thawing of relations at a time of deep hostility between US-Iran.  The United States and Israel had worked together to develop a cyberwar program which had the capacity to bring Iran�€™s nuclear program to a standstill. By 2008 they had begun to put the program into action. Our foresight (which was thought unlikely at the time) was based on a set of distinct signposts from the recent history of US-Iran relations.

Several signposts led to our prediction such as U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright�€™s speech on March 17, 2000, where she apologised for America�€™s role in the 1953 overthrow of Mohammed Mossadeq, and acknowledged the coup, which installed the Shah. Other signposts included the cooperation between US, Iran, UN, Russia, and India after the overthrow of the Taliban Government during the US-led war in Afghanistan in 2001; an overture from Iran for comprehensive bilateral talks offered to the US officials in 2003 after the US-led invasion of Iraq; and lastly cooperation during peace talks on Iraq in 2007.

In the Emerging Issues: Global Security and Economy report, we also listed drivers that would lead to the mending of relations between US-Iran.  One important driver which still holds true today is that Iran is strategically very important to the US. On the one hand, given its geographical location, it has the capacity to bring great stability to the Middle East. On the other hand it has enormous natural hydrocarbon resources. Most of the oil and gas resources of the Middle East lie in the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Sea; large parts of both areas fall under Iran�€™s territory.  According to US Energy Information Administration�€™s 2013 data, Iran holds the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and the world's second-largest natural gas reserves.

More recently, the reaction of both countries to the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) signifies some degree of alignment in thought. Both countries find themselves on the same side in terms of seeing the ISIL as a major security threat, and are taking measures to help defend Iraq from the insurgents. This goes to support our scenario where an avenue for a partnership between the two countries seems to have opened. It is not unreasonable then to hope that the mending of this relationship may continue despite obstacles (such as disagreements on the war in Syria) along the way.