Progress or Precipice???

                                                 Sundeep Waslekar

The shore of Atlantic Ocean at Estoril is quiet. In May 2018, Frank-Jurgen Richter chose it for debating the most unquiet question facing the world over dinner with former Heads of States and Governments. Is humankind actualizing its unlimited potential or is it heading towards complete annihilation?

The dinner was convened by Horasis, a network of business leaders founded by Richter, who is an entrepreneur, author and philosopher rolled into one. The word ‘Horasis’ means ‘active vision’. Only the ancient Greeks could have found one word that represents the blending of a verb and a noun. And only Horasis could have blended leaders with opposite beliefs into a cohesive exploration of the future of the world.

Those at the table included several African, American and European leaders. Mohamed El Baradei, Nobel Peace Laureate and former Vice President of Egypt who once headed the International Atomic Energy Agency argued that we live in a World at Precipice. Yves Leterme, former Prime Minister of Belgium and currently Secretary General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance argued that we live in a World of Progress.

In El Baradei’s world, about a tenth of the world’s population lives in extreme poverty and hunger and about a quarter of the world’s population lives below poverty line. It’s a world where mutual trust and respect is in fast decline, inequality is on rise, human dignity is compromised, and 2000 nuclear weapons in “ready to launch” position pose existential threat to 7.7 billion people and other life forms on the planet. El Baradei is even more worried about the psychology that is governing human relations today, within and between countries. It is the psychology of Carthago Delenda Est, the total destruction of the other. The most lethal use of Cathago Delenda Est is to be found in Asimov’s novel, Robots and Empire, to justify obliteration of the earth.

In Yves Leterme’s world, democracy, economic growth and peace are spreading. Technology has enabled us to overcome disease and physical limitations. He reflects the optimism of Steven Pinker and Johan Norberg, whose books on enlightenment and progress have won accolades. Poverty is on decline. Life expectancy and literacy rates are rising. Violence of all kinds, including homicide and war casualties, is down. The human condition today is better than it has ever been in the history of civilization. We live in era of human ingenuity and rationality that will enable us to resolve the problem of global warming and scarcities.  

Both arguments are backed by facts and stats.

It is true that at any given time the world has progressed as compared to the previous decade, century and millennium. Over the last few centuries, electricity, aeroplanes, cars, radio, computers, Internet, vaccinations, penicillin, angioplasty, fertilizers, and other inventions have certainly helped eradicate many a disease and improve the quality of life. During the same period, cannibalism, colonialism, slavery and gender discrimination have disappeared from most parts of the world. We human beings are healthier, more aware, freer and more tolerant than ever before. Is Yves Leterme’s world then the real world? Is Pinker correct in decrying the criticism of progress?

It is also true that in some respects the world is exactly as it was several centuries and millennia ago. In the third year of a new century, a coalition of the Western nations attacked a ruler of an Eastern country who in their opinion had usurped power. The Western military forces killed women and children, destroyed libraries and defiled homes of the defeated leader’s capital city. They justified the carnage in the name of some lofty values. This was the sack of Constantinople in 1203 AD. This was the attack on Baghdad in 2003 AD. In the year 70 of a new century, organised groups in Jerusalem used illegally acquired weapons to kill those in authorities who they believed had illegally occupied their holy city. This was the violence by Sicarii Jew organisations against the Roman empire in 70 AD. This was the violence by Palestinian organisations against Israel in 1970 AD.

While statistics can show that the number of deaths and violent conflicts have gone down since 2005, they hide the fact that 5 million people were killed in Rwanda, Congo and Sudan from 1990 to 2005. While statistics can show that the number of nuclear weapons has declined, they hide the fact that TNT yield and lethality of the remaining 15000 nuclear weapons are being enhanced in a competitive way by Trump and Putin. While statistics can show that democracies, meaning the countries where elections are regularly held, are on the rise, they hide the fact that many of these elected leaders use their authority deliberately and consciously to divide and impoverish segments of their own societies.

We can agree with Leterme, Pinker and Norberg that human ingenuity will find solutions to the problems of global warming, water scarcity and poverty. But can we disagree with El Baradei that human greed, ego and pursuit of power prevents us from reducing inequity, discrimination, injustice, and ending the lust for the weapons of mass destruction.

Yves Leterme’s world is the world of what we can do and of course, we can. El Baradei’s world is the world of what we want. Whether we move towards progress or precipice will not depend on what we can. It will depend on what we want and do not want.