In January 2008, we published a report “Global Security and Economy: Emerging Issues” that identified some of the most important issues across sectors and geographies that we thought would influence the world from 2011 to 2020. We began by undertaking a survey of what other institutions and research organisations were saying. We brainstormed. We argued and counter argued. We went back to research and we convened workshops. After making a long list of 100 issues we classified them as emerging or emerged, trend or discontinuity and whether they were likely to have an impact through the next decade. After all our deliberations, we pared them down to our final list of 20.

Last week I picked up a copy of the report and was happily surprised to see how many issues that we had identified had indeed had a significant impact on the last decade.

The five issues that we thought would have the widest impact and highest probability were: prosperity of the periphery, competitive extremism, rise of multipolarity, global financial crisis and water scarcity in emerging economies.

In 2008, half of the world’s 6.6 billion population was in the market, while the other half (around 3.3 billion) lived in the periphery where people were unable to afford even the basic amenities of life. We estimated that despite accelerated development, there would still be 3 billion people in the periphery in 2020. Today, with a global population of 7.8 billion, extreme poverty is set to rise for the first time in two decades and while accurate numbers of people in the periphery are not easily available, 3 billion would be a conservative figure. 2 billion people do not even have decent toilets of their own according to Water Aid.

In 2008, we had hoped that if policies of inclusion were pursued, the number of people living in hope in the periphery, would lead to a period of peace, productivity, and prosperity. Unfortunately, this was not to be.

We had said that the problem of terrorism is slowly transforming into the problem of competitive extremism. While terrorism implies politically or ideologically motivated violence, which constitutes criminal acts, extremism is more about arming minds and mobilising large sections of population to create absolutist societies.

“If a large number of countries in the Middle East and Asia fall prey to forces of religious orthodoxy, if Russia and China resort to ultra-nationalism, and if evangelical groups in the United States and rightist groups in Europe acquire adequate electoral clout, they can all influence the policies of their countries. The states under the influence of such groups and forces are least likely to pursue collaborative problem-solving approach to the world. They are likely to take to isolationist behaviour at the slightest appearance of economic and social fault-lines. Together they will create a world, which is characterised by lack of mutual trust and cooperation.”

The paragraph above is a direct quote from the report. It portends the rise of ISIS (Daesh), ultra-nationalism in Russia and China, the rise of white supremacist groups in the US and a few populist governments in Europe. A frightening prophecy indeed, especially   at a time when multilateralism and institutions of global governance are struggling.

Rise of Multi-polarity, the global financial crisis and water scarcity in emerging economies have all been witnessed in the last decade.  They need no further elaboration!

In the section of Technologies and Resources that would dominate the decade, we had predicted breakthroughs in biology and technology and its positive and negative implications, the spread of cleantech as a way to deal with climate change,  fear of pandemics- with a special focus on an influenza type disease that had the capacity to cripple the world economy, divert health budgets, lead to severe travel restrictions and closure of borders and a race to create a vaccine by 9 advanced western economies.

We also identified competition in space as a new theatre of war. In recent years, India and China have both demonstrated their anti-satellite missile capacity and launched missions to the moon and Mars.  The US is returning to its earlier policy of putting people into space under its own flag, and not relying on the services of others—especially countries like Russia that are competitors. In 2020, almost 70 countries have space programs, though less than 10 are currently capable of launching satellites independently.

In critical information infrastructure we predicted that governments globally would increasingly legislate/ control/disrupt/monitor cyberspace to reiterate their ideology, economic and sovereign interests and wage information and cyber wars to deter enemies (both state and non-state), while repressive governments would use  powerful filtering/monitoring technologies for restricting the IT freedom of its citizens. Unfortunately, we have seen this happen in numerous countries over the last decade. And of course, the coronavirus pandemic has only exacerbated this further.

The section on Troubled Geographies covered the Middle East and the Chinese countryside. But most interestingly it predicted strategic cooperation between US and Iran at a time when there was a hostile relationship between them and stringent sanctions against Iran. In 2015, Iran and the international community struck an agreement, under which Iran agreed reduce its nuclear arsenal and curtail its nuclear program in return for significant easing of US, UN, and EU sanctions. This course of rapprochement was overturned by a decision of President Trump to pull of the nuclear deal in 2018.

Thus, the Global Security and Economy report makes an interesting read looking back and most of all, it shows that a foresight exercise that uses research and insight really works!

The complete report can be read here

https://www.strategicforesight.com/publication_pdf/63401Global%20Security%20and%20Economy.pdf