We live in an increasingly integrating global economy but we do not have a global polity. The Security Council is dysfunctional on crucial issues. The United Nations has made excellent contribution to positive transformation in the world, but most of it has been through its specialised agencies in the field of development, health, population control, among others.

Much of the real power rests with G-8, which was G-7 during the Cold War and later on expanded to include the Russian Federation. Lately, G-8 meetings also accommodate Mexico, India, China, Brazil and South Africa as observers. The five emerging economies are invited to dinners at the G-8 summitry but not to all the discussion tables. Since G-8 is an informal and voluntary group, it has the privilege to decide who should be its members. However, some of its members today carry much less influence than some of the other countries that are outside it.

The time has come to find space for a group of emerging eight countries in central discussions on global governance. Initially it might be a mechanism for discussion. Eventually, the Emerging Eight will need to be involved in decision-making and not merely discussion. A big question of our time is whether we can find means for the industrial G-8 and the emerging G-8 to interact and cooperate in the larger interest of the world.

At least two members of the Emerging Eight are obvious. China and India have, since the turn of the century, made upward social mobility possible for almost 200 million people. We expect another 100-150 million people to improve their living standard in the two countries by 2010, taking the total to around 300-350 million or 5% of the world’s population. This is one of the largest transitions from despair to hope in a mere decade in the history of the world. I will not repeat here the statistics of the share of global GDP, trade, etc, of both countries, which are debated by economists almost every day.

I would rather like to emphasise that the growing clout of China and India is not confined to economic well-being. They are also expanding their political role in the world. In less than half a decade, China has expanded its influence to Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Earlier this year, Beijing hosted an aid summit for African leaders. The exchange of trade and investments between China and the Arab counties has multiplied at a phenomenal speed. China is rumoured to have acquired large tracks of land in Central Asia and Russia. When I visited Moscow a few months ago, everyone, without exception, mentioned China in big awe.

India is increasingly perceived as a long-term strategic ally by the United States. Europe, Israel and Arab countries would also like to have closer relations with it. India brought peace in Nepal in a very quiet way. It is supporting Norway’s mediation in Sri Lanka, though it is on hold for the time being. India is helping Afghanistan to build its social infrastructure. India has been invited to join the East Asian economic grouping. Thus, its presence is expanding both in near and distant countries.

Brazil and South Africa are already recognised as emerging economies. Brazil has surfaced as an innovative leader on the global energy scene with technological breakthroughs in its own areas of strength. For many years, oil majors resisted Brazil’s success in ethanol. However, when the fear of oil prices crossing $100 a barrel appeared serious, ethanol became a subject of the highest level discussion between Brazil and industrial powers. As Venezuela poses a challenge to American interests in South America, Brazil is perceived as a strategic partner by the United States.

South Africa has a vision of a renaissance for the entire continent. It dreams of integrating economy of the entire sub-Saharan Africa in minerals, water, electricity and other crucial sector. It is already a destination for African exports and refugees. It is one of the few large countries in the world to run a budget surplus. It has highly innovative companies that can revolutionise the energy sector through technological inventions. South Africa also has proved its political leadership in the continent, though it still has to demonstrate leadership outside Africa.

While China, India, Brazil and South Africa are commonly recognised as emerging players, there are others that deserve a central role in global affairs. Saudi Arabia and Turkey not only have strategic locations but also resource base and political capital to influence global events in the next half century.

Saudi Arabia’s importance as the world’s second largest oil exporter, after Russia, and as the home of the world’s largest known oil reserves, is well-known. Under the leadership of King Abdullah, it is playing an extremely critical role to stabilise the Middle East and therefore international politics. It has come out with a peace plan for the recognition and security of Israel in exchange for the return of conquered lands. The entire Arab world reaffirmed its support to the plan in 2007.

Saudi Arabia has managed to bring about unity between warring factions of the Palestine polity. It has made a similar offer to the parties in Lebanon. It has brokered peace between Sudan and Chad. It has opened dialogue with Syria and Iran to diffuse tensions between Shia and Sunni communities. Saudi Arabia is also investing significant amount of funds in the development of education, science and technology in the southern part of the country.

Turkey represents great civilization and a power for half to one millennium. Under its current dispensation, Turkey has taken a lead to introduce internal reforms to qualify for membership of the European Union. It has launched diplomatic initiatives for contributing to stability in Iraq. It has offered to facilitate conflict resolution between Afghanistan and Pakistan and EU and Iran. Prime Minister Erdogan was the moving spirit behind the Alliance of Civilization, an initiative of the United Nations Secretary General, for positive discourse between the Western and Islamic countries.

Egypt should be another member of this grouping for reasons similar to Turkey – a great civilization, strategic location, increasing economic dynamism, diplomatic initiatives to make peace in the region, and good relations with both Western and Islamic countries.

While 7 countries mentioned above are obvious to any discussion on emerging powers, there will be different views on the 8th candidate. Indeed, in another situation, Iraq or Iran could qualify. They have the properties that could give them leverage to influence world politics. However, currently, one is in complete mess and the other is involved in highly antagonistic dynamics with several different constituencies in the world. Mexico, Chile, Algeria, Jordan, Korea can be some of the other candidates. My own preference will be for Indonesia despite its economic weaknesses. It is the largest member of the Asean, the largest Muslim country in the world, one of the most successful examples of transition from dictatorship to democracy and violence to peace, and a depository of abundant natural resources.

We must not forget that there is a basic difference between the Industrial Eight and the Emerging Eight. The former, with sole exception of the Russian federation, are broadly free from internal strife. All of the latter have serious internal issues. The former are democracies. The latter have different models of governance. The former have common culture, with predominant Christian populations. The latter have diversity of religions, cultural traditions and values. It would be therefore difficult for the latter to come together in any kind of grouping.In fact, I am not proposing any grouping of Emerging Eight. Instead, I would like to believe that the original G-8 should be expanded to G-16 to include (and not merely to accommodate as observers) the Emerging Eight. It is granted that the Industrial Eight have certain common perspectives to share but one can think of a two-tier structure of the G-16 without disturbing the original G-8.

In 2004, Paul Martin, who was then Prime Minister of Canada, had come out with a proposal to establish L-20. I don’t recall the list of his remaining 10 countries, besides G-8, India and China. However, I doubt if Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt were there. Without the inclusion of these countries, any new discussion forum on global issues would be inadequate. Besides, the exploratory and preparatory phase was managed so badly that Martin had to abandon the project. Eventually, Martin lost the election and the new Prime Minister has no time for any such initiative.

Nevertheless, the fundamental premise of Martin’s L-20 was good, though the exact formulation could be different. Its success will depend upon the choice of countries. It will be necessary for serious political leaders in these countries to pursue it as means of smooth and peaceful of transformation of the global governance structure. An idea of this nature can not be reduced to a competition between academics to push their hobby horses. The new G-16, if promoted with the highest level of statesmanship, will help to reduce friction and maximise opportunities for the majority of the world’s people. If not, the Emerging Eight will emerge in any way, on their own, in a world that will be chaotic and prone to man-made Tsunamis.