In September when the world tossed and turned over the Holy Father’s remarks on Islam and the coup in Thailand, Strategic Foresight Group was seized with the new order in Russia after the presidential elections in 2008. Foresight is about the developments of the future, not commentary on the events of the past.

Will he or won’t he? It seems almost certain that President Putin will step down when Russia goes for polls in 2008. Whether his decision will be real or creative is rather uncertain. It is possible that his successor might fall sick after a year or so in office and Putin may come back. The Russian constitution prohibits continuation in the office after two consecutive terms but it allows assumption of presidency after an interregnum. It is less likely, but not impossible, that Russia and Belarus may form a confederation under joint presidency. The Russian President may then report to the Confederation President Putin.

The real question about Russia’s leadership is not confined to the personality of one individual. Politics is a game of uncertainties. Putin is today extremely popular and invincible. So was Thaksin in Thailand after his first elections, Blair in UK after two elections and George Bush, Jr. after the 9/11 episode. Goran Parsson expected the Swedish electorate to thank him for his economic success as did Paul Martin in Canada. Once a leader steps down, more often than not his most loyal successor turns around. We expect that the new leaders of Social Democratic Party in Sweden and Liberal Party in Canada will not necessarily be the acolytes of Parsson and Martin. When Mahathir Mohamad resigned from the leadership of UMNO, he thought that he could call shots from a distance. It did not take long for him to be threatened with expulsion from the party he had led for over two decades.

More than Putin, it is important to examine if the current ultra capitalist elite will continue to rule Moscow, whether under the new effective leader or whether under Putin’s disguised leadership. If they do, the name of the man at the top may not matter all that much.

The top layer of Russian pyramid is made of about a hundred capitalists, with about 20 of them sharing space at the pinnacle. Most of them are owners or controllers of energy companies. A few have stakes in Russia’s military industrial complex, hospitality industry, construction, finance, trade and military industrial complex. The energy companies have created vertically integrated conglomerates with horizontally shared territories. Each one is a boss of his own territory. So long as the subtle understanding on shared territorial monopolies prevails, the companies can dictate terms to consumers. If one of them tries to jostle for expanding their own space, accidents and arrests can follow. Such mishaps were frequent in the 1990s. President Putin has taught a good measure of self-discipline. The energy companies in turn have created a web of linkages in the presidential administration.

President Putin has earned his popularity by a combination of good work and good fortune. He has disciplined the oligarchs. He has forced the mafia out of the common man’s life, though the mafia is very much present wherever the stakes are high. He has expanded public expenditure five times since his first election, sharing oil dividend with a large section of the population. He has liberalised foreign trade, making it possible for the latest brands to display in the most sophisticated malls of Moscow. The famous Red Square is now an attraction for Russians for its beautiful and expensive mall while poor tourists want to see the St Basilica cathedral and Kremlin. When I was in Moscow, one evening there was a massive traffic jam because of the Madonna show.

The Russians may relish the latest brand. They may enjoy Madonna’s music. They may love the taste of McDonald’s hamburger on every other street. But they hate America’s growing political power. In his early years, Putin prided in being the first leader to call George Bush after 9/11 and throwing open Central Asia to American defence forces. But lately he has become increasingly circumspect of American intentions in the region. The colour revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have turned red faces in Moscow. The new Russian mantra is capitalism and consumerism, a la American style, in the field of economics but multi-polarity in the political arena.

Russia’s growing admiration and fear for China and the decline of America’s moral capital all over the world after the Iraq war have convinced Moscow that the new world order is going to be multi-polar. The US monopoly is transient. If this is going to be the future of the world, Moscow, with its nuclear weapons, $300 billion of reserves from oil revenue, a stabilisation fund of $100 billion by early next year, would also like to be one of the important poles.

If Russia uses its assets prudently, it may succeed in building a multi-polar world order. It would not be difficult for it to regain influence in some of the former CIS states. It may even be able to create its space in the Middle East and Latin America. It may enter into an uneasy but workable relationship with China and Japan. It may make some inroads in Africa, as Putin has already indicated with his visits to Morocco and South Africa.

However, if Russia remains in the clutches of one hundred or so rich men, who refuse to create a free market, who show no interest in diversification into manufacturing and other employment generating sectors, who are oblivious to the dangerous demographic trends and the crop of unemployed, it may face dangers from unexpected quarters. The Chinese can slowly make incursions into the Russian economic and political space. The tensions in Dagestan may spread to other parts of the country. The mafia may surface again, with growing supply of unemployed young men. Someone creative in CIA may discover one more colour.

The question therefore is not whether President Putin will find a trick to retain himself in Kremlin after 2008. The critical question is whether the Russian elite in which the presidency is ensconced will have the vision to diversify the economy and the polity and in the process give up some of their clout in the interest of Russia’s empowerment. The wisdom of the Russian elite will not only determine if the malls will continue to attract consumers but it will also have an influence on whether the world will be multi-polar or bipolar, the other pole being Beijing. There are also bigger questions about the wise use of energy dividends globally but they need separate reflection another time.