The body count increasing in Iraq, the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and growing curbs on personal liberty in Western democracies are signs of just how wrong the war on terror has gone. We need a completely fresh approach to deconstruct terror and to build trust between Western and Islamic countries. We must also not forget that terrorism pervades strongly in parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa.

In September when the world tossed and turned over the Holy Father�€™s remarks on Islam and the coup in Thailand, Strategic Foresight Group was seized with the new order in Russia after the presidential elections in 2008. Foresight is about the developments of the future, not commentary on the events of the past.

A volatile province, Balochistan has always proven to be a delicate issue for the political/military masters in Islamabad. More recently, the province has been up in arms against Islamabad�€™s writ and continued exploitation. Despite having the largest gas reserves in the country, it supplies over 80% of its gas produce to Punjab and Sindh while it consumes hardly 17%. With minimal returns for all its gas supplies and having to depend upon Federal largesse the stark economic underdevelopment of the region has always been a rallying point for Balochis. This economic underdevelopment of the region when juxtaposed with the over bearing presence of the Pak military regime and the ethnic differences between Balochistan and the rest of Pakistan (read Punjab) results in the kind of insurgency that is currently being witnessed in the province.

Ambassador Olara Otunnu, a career diplomat, Under Secretary General for the United Nations and former Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict. Ambassador Otunnu is a renowned expert on governance issues and has tirelessly worked towards highlighting and addressing the plight of children in war effected countries, as far spread as Uganda, Sri Lanka, Sierra Leone (among others) promoting measures for the social integration and rehabilitation of these children in the aftermath of war as well as working on issues such as child protection, counseling, education in an effort to ameliorate both the short term and as well as long term negative effects of war on the development of these children.

�€œWe have entered the age of inconclusive wars,�€ said Ambassador Hesham Youssef, a key official of the League of Arab States. He was speaking at a workshop Strategic Foresight Group had jointly organised with SMWIPM Institute of Peace Studies at Bibliotheca Alexandrina in Egypt in August this year. The war in Lebanon had sparked massive rage all over the Middle East. The US might have declared victory in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but they are still very active killing fields. Most significantly, there is a war of terrorism and a war on terror.

The Arab civilization, like many other civilizations, once reigned at a cultural and intellectual apogee, but subsequently lost this position and found itself close to the lowest rungs of the civilizational hierarchy. However, the civilization has not completely lost the spirit that once made it indisputably great. If the region has lost its bearings in the turbulent contemporary world of technological unfamiliarity and moral ambiguity, then it needs to reach out to its past and bring back the principles of free enquiry and tolerance advocated by its faith, and find its way once again to the shore.

One of the most vital, yet elusive questions of our time is what went wrong in the relationship between the Muslims and the West. 

About a year ago, I read an interesting article by Prof Niall Ferguson, drawing parallels between the period leading to the First World War and the current global scenario. More recently, I read his book The Pity of War, which analyses factors contributing to the First World War, including some reasons which have not been discussed much but which are very convincing. He makes a very persuasive argument that the First World War was a major error of the modern era. More significantly, it was an error that could have been avoided.